Photo by Turkmenistan Ministry of Railways
Turkmenistan is busy building various railways. Is any of this going to be of use to NATO's NDN plans?
Short answer: No.
Longer answer: No. But there are some intriguing indications that it's at least in the US policy and planning folder, and Turkmenistan is at least building out to the Afghan border.
Turkmenistan has been in a bit of a frenzy of rail-constructing activity in the last year or two. Turkmen officials were off to the UK last week to buy rail equipment and Berdymukhamedov has been talking up the rail construction projects at government meetings.
The allegedly dubious and pro-Kazakh government Universal News Wires writes on one of the Turkmen plans:
The 52-mile railroad will link with Central Asia’s regional transport network and boost the export potential of the troubled country.
The line which begins at the Afghan town of Akina-Andhoi, some 400 miles northwest of Kabul, will end at Afghanistan’s northern border with Turkmenistan and the Turkmen town of Atamyrat-Ymamnazar.
I don't see any reason to distrust that report. The Times of Central Asia also reports this rail activity (and both probably mined the official press) and it's consistent with past reports of rail construction plans, so I think Turkmenistan is trying to ramp up its rails:
“We will continue to build railroads in different directions,” said the Turkmen leader noting that the Atamyrat-Imamnazar railway, the Gazachak-Shasenem-Dashoguz railway, a railway bridge across the Amu Darya River and a high-speed railway between Turkmenbashi in Balkan Velayat and Turkmenabat in Lebap Velayat would be built in the near future.
This is partly about improvement of commerce and transport domestically, and also about connecting to other countries in the region to ship everything from LNG to melons.
The railroad enthusiast Andrew Grantham has a great map of some of these plans which he has put together. He notes the scarcity of information about Turkmenistan's railroads (a hangover from Soviet secrecy and characteristic of the authoritarian regime since then) and wonders if there is even a web site for the official ministry of railroads because he couldn't find it. There is (you have to Google in Russian), but it seems to exist only in Russian and hasn't been updated in months -- and doesn't have a lot of information on it. (I've always wondered what the back story was regarding the railroad official's assassination a few years ago of the MNB official who was investigating his alleged corruption. What was that all about?).
What's interesting about Turkmenistan's projects (and which makes it be about more than just melons) is that it is doing them with key countries in the Islamic world, starting of course with its neighbour, Iran, whose leader never behaves as crazily when he has talks with Berdymukhamedov about concrete projects like this as he does at the UN when he's trying to wipe Israel from the map.
Then there's also Jordan, which is consulting, and Qatar, which is helping. Meetings with Afghanistan construction and economic officials undoubtedly had this on the table and it's been mentioned in Berdymukhamecov's talks with Karzai.
So is the US making any headway in trying to get Turkmenistan signed up for the NDN?
A Wikileaks-revealed cable dated December 2, 2008, that I don't think has been covered tells the tale:
First, a visit from General McNab, summarized as follows:
Charge Miles raised the issue of the Northern Distribution Network (NDN) with Turkmen Foreign Minister Meredov. Meredov listened carefully to Charge,s points but then re-played the well-known Turkmen (negative) position on the issue. Charge emphasized that the issue was important and would not go away. Charge left a non-paper which, presumably, the Minister will share with President Berdimuhamedov.
Then McNab's talking points:
- The importance of utilizing alternate routes besides going through Pakistan.
- The limitation to commercial, non-military cargo necessary for the re-building of Afghanistan's infrastructure.
- Shipping was in the hands of various commercial shippers; in that required this cargo was no different than any other commercial cargo transported through Turkmenistan.
- The Russian Government and other regional governments had no problem with such shipments.
This was 2008, and Pakistan was already a problem, and only a year into Berdymukhamedov's term, there was still hope that the lure of commerce might get Turkmenistan out of its "neutrality" mantra.
It didn't. Says the cable writer:
The Minister listened attentively and then said, "You know our position." (Comment: Indeed, we do. End comment.) He then described in some detail the transit arrangements which the Turkmen Government was allowing the United States - some of which, he emphasized, were unique to the United States. The Charge said that we did appreciate the arrangements very much. (Comment: Neither the Minister nor the Charge mentioned the on-going fuel shipments. It was implicit in the Minister's remarks, but even in this one-on-one conversation, it was apparently better left unsaid. End comment.)
What was also left unsaid was that the US paid for that privilege, as Deirdre Tynan of EurasiaNet has reported, although it said it wasn't going to.
But you know, it's not just guns:
The Minister even brought up the old chestnut of the wine shipment - labeled provisions - which, if memory serves, was destined for the use of the Italian contingent in Afghanistan. "How would it look," he exclaimed, "if it were known that Turkmenistan - a Muslim country - allowed a shipment of alcohol to Afghanistan - another Muslim country?" (Comment: The Charge refrained from commenting on what he had observed so far of Turkmen drinking habits. End comment.)
Ok, so that's that, but there's a more fresh indication of the failure of the US to get the NDN line through, which comes recently from Sanjar Umarov, the Uzbek businessman and former political prisoner who now lives in the US.
One of Umarov's business propositions has been to offer logistics services to the US military.
When relations with Pakistan deteriorated and that route was shut off completely, Umarov suggested an alternative NDN route through the Black Sea: Georgia-Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan-Afghanistan. This route left out Uzbekistan (in case anybody wanted to do that).
Using the magic of the Central Asian edition of the LinkedIn game (about which I've written before), Umarov contacted what he deemed to be the appropriate person to put this proposal to regarding the Turkmen route for the NDN.
On this round of the game, in response to his routing proposal, using the inmail system which is for premium accounts only, however, he got this answer:
The request was appropriate for the recipient, but not at this time.
I think this answer came because Turkmenistan just doesn't want to do NDN stuff on its railroads now. But if you're going to level up at LI, I think you have to try to beat more bosses on this.
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