Medvedev and Atambayev. Kremlin.ru. Russian Presidential Photo Service.
Traditionally, it seems to be important for the leader of Kyrgyzstan to get along with Russia -- for lots of reasons.
The new president of Kyrgyzstan, Almazbek Atambayev, has already gotten himself into trouble at home both for insufficient regard of the national hero Manas (calling him curiously "an ethnic Rossiyanin, i.e. from the territory of Russia) and refusing to meet with an Uzbek astronaut and even blaming him for the violence in Osh -- which seemed not only excessively nationalistic on his part but unjust.
But it's not as if he's going to keep Russia happy, the way he's talking.
Registan (Joshua Foust) may have this all wrong -- because he belongs to the school of thought that always understates Russia in Central Asia and sees it as a weak and vacilating power that isn't a threat.
Foust told us not to take Atambayev seriously when he said he wanted the US out of Manas; he told us that again, and also said "he's a friend of Russia":
Atambayev, however, is a friend of Russia. And Russia likes making noise about the U.S. presence at Manas. Russia, however, also likes keeping the U.S. nearby so it can absorb any negative spillover from the war in Afghanistan. A full American withdrawal worries Moscow as much as it worries Afghanistan.
I'm not so sure he's such a big friend of Russia -- and there are signs that Kyrgyzstan remains unstable and who knows how long he will last.
And this idea of "America as security umbrella for Russia" is nuts of course, for a number of reasons, including the fact that Russia just blocked the US in its efforts to convert the war in Afghanistan into a joint anti-narcotics war with Central Asian governments and the Kremlin.I really this is a very, very entrenched "received wisdom" idea that "the Russians like the Americans in Manas because they "take the heat" (and of course pay Russia for fuel. But it's worth disloding from the received-wisdom slot because it could change.
I don't see why you can't take Atambayev at his word -- read his interview, and he says he doesn't mind having Manas serve as a civilian airport through with military freight passes, but doesn't want it to be "an American air base". This might be a distinction without a difference, but it probably means less personnel -- and command and control issues.
He also is extremely blunt about not wanting the Russian base, and finding it merely a Russian general's vanity project.
RIA-Novosti has a lot of the most sensational bits from the Kommersant interview in English-- calling the $15 million rent for the Kant air base the Russians haven't paid in four years "measly," and saying it exists merely to "flatter the vanity of Russian generals."
For some reason, Joshua Kucera seemed to think that the Russians only agreed to finally pay this $15 million because they "got something" out of it.
I think it probably worked somewhat differently -- they didn't pay it because...they can. Do what they want, I mean. They have Bishkek over a barrel, they weren't happy with Bakiyiev and strung him along and put pressure on him and didn't pay the rent...Otunbayeva was an interrim leader so they didn't really have to deal...now they are assured that Atambayev will cooperate with them so they said they'd pay. In 10 days. Let's see if they do. '
But I don't think Atambayev had to offer them the scrapping of the US plan to build a training facility in Kizyl-Kiya -- we may well see them put that in to keep a "balance."
No, it might be simply a pledge to really make sure the Americans leave Manas in 2014 as Atambayev has stated. Kucera doesn't mention this, maybe he takes it for a given.
Here's my notes with some important sections in bold from the Kommersant interview:
"Russia has placed its hopes on not the most pro-Russian politician in the republic"
- The fact that no documents were signed means nothing, as many were signed in the past and weren't implemented but now "finally we have come to a decision that suits both Kyrgyzstan and Russia" that doesn't damage either side.
- On Dastan -- the building was transferred to Russia but Russia wouldn't take it, and are prepared to give 48% of the shares -- he blames bureaucracy and intrigues
- 75% sale of Kyrgyzgaz to Gazprom -- as well as Kyrgyzneft. "If Russia apparently doesn't need this in particular, what can we do? We're prepared to sell it even tomorrow. And yesterday we ere prepared. So you decide, do you need it or not."
Perhaps Kyrgyzstan was asking too much for it? A commission is evaluating this -- but Gazprom should decide whether it wants it.
- On Kambarata-1, the hydropower station "The agreement is signed but it is fulfilled in fact by the Russian side!" Only $1 million has been paid, although $2 billion was promised. Same story with the four power stations on the Naryn river "What prevented them from starting last year? It's simple, if you don't want to build it, we have others who want to."
- on Megacom -- taken away from Russian investors by Bakiyev -- "it's a long story" -- a court decision made in early February says none of the parties can take any of the property until the dispute is resolved -- if necessary, it will go to international arbitration.
-- as for the Russian base -- "We'll think about it." Russia hasn't been paying the rent. Kommersant objects that Russian officials say they are supposed to get free rent in exchange for training military.
No, not true, Russia has to pay rent -- and it's just a question of the leadership not realizing the situation -- now Medvedev has ordered $15 million to be paid within 10 days.
-- as for Kant -- "what has it done for Kyrgyzstan in five years?"
"During the Osh events in 2010, did Russian planes even make any flights over the territory?"
-- if Russia leaves, Kant can be used to accept flights in bad weather that can't land at Manas.
"But you're a member of the CSTO," says Kommersant. "What, every member of the CSTO has to have a Russian base?" replies Atambayev.
-- What about Moscow's demand to sign an agreement for the unified base for 49 years with automatic renewals for 25-year periods?
"It's too early to talk about that yet. We have to decide whether we need the base first."
-- As for the US in Manas -- "in any civilian airport, there shouldn't be a military base". So the base won't be closed, but it will be a civilian airport that will handle cargo. "As a logistics center, it is a very convenient location."
"They say Atambayev wants to close the American base in order to ask Russia for a loan. But I didn't ask a single kopeck from Russia -- no loans, not grants!"
-- The Americans thought the Kyrgyz wanted more money -- "they've only now understood that they must prepare for the closure of the base."
-- Would Atambayev agree to transit of cargo for US troops?
"Doesn't transit to Afghanistan go through Russia? It does. Russia earns money it. And we want to build a cargo terminal so that Kyrgyzstan can earn money. If Russia wants to do that, we'll do it with Russia. With any country."
"If you're bothered by a military air base in a civilian airport, then do you want to move the US base to Kant?"
"That will never be!" The agreement with Russia is automatically extended for now, but each country should defend itself.
[And here, Atambayev seems to accept the Eurasia Union or Customs Union]
"It's more logical if Kyrgyzstan will be tied to Russia not through some base, but will exist in a single economic space, and have common external borders. That would be logical. And not have it be with some whip which is used on Kyrgyzstan. That should be avoided."
[And here's where he explains how the deal with the training center is more complicated than just trading it away for the rent.]
"The idea of creating a training center for the US or NATO in the south of Kyrgyzstan was discussed. Will you do this?"
"We said that if a training center will simply be built and transferred to us, then we'll agree, it's help. Whether the US or Russia builds it for us -- it's no difference. But if under that banner there will remain some instructors or some sort of group of military advisors, we will not go for that. We do not want to play those war games with anybody."
"If Russia is prepared to help us, sure, we will accept that help. But some air base, it's not clear what it's for. It's a sop to the vanity of the Russian generals, the rent isn't paid, the obligations aren't fulfilled. Who needs it?"
-- Kyrgyzstan's debt to Russia of $14 million? It's paid. But it was technical assistance that wasn't needed and was stolen "So that debat was created for us, let's put it that way."
- $30 million loan? Didn't ask for any.
-- And the loan from the Eurasian Economic Community of $106 million? Put in the budget, not given.
"If things are so great, why did you issue a treasury note for $200 imllion to support the budget deficit?"
"Any country issues treasury notes...It's a civilized method of raising money in America, Europe, Russia."
Kyrgyzstan has more revenue now; customs fees increased 1.5 times; corruption and crime are being fought.
What happened to the $150 million grant or the $300 million loans Bishkek got in 2009 in exchange for getting rid of the American base? They were given to Bakiyev two months before the elections, where his chief rival was in fact Atambayev. And as Atambayev warned, they disappeared.
Temir Sariev said in April 2010 after Bakiyev was overthrown that $280 million remained from the Russian loans but the rest was stolen by the interrim government in which Atambayev was a member.
"Yes, it's true, after the revolution $200 out of the $450 million was left. The difference was stolen under Bakiyev. The rest was used to rebuild Osh and Jalal-Abad after the 2010 events.
"Russian officials say that the physical reconstruction worth $200 million is not visible there."
"Russian officials say a lot of things...But both I and the leaders of Russia have become convinced that you can't always believe them."
Any aid from China? for the railroad from Uzbekistan through Kyrgyzstan to China?
"It's not aid. We will either take a loan or attract investment."
But there are problems -- they have to finish building the Datka sub-station. Kyrgyzstan received a loan from China for this. Now they have to build Datka-Kemin, and will take a loan from whoever gives the most favourable terms.
"Aren't you afraid of winding up in China's pocket?"
"We're not afraid. We are a different country, a different people."
- But China is asking in exchange for its $3 billion investment in the railroad to get access to mineral deposits along it.
"No, that won't happen." That was the old regime. "We will either develop natural resources ourselves or announce a tender."
[More questions on domestic politics.]
Medvedev was said to insist on Constitutional amendments [he didn't like the idea of a parliamentary state].
"First, he probably was worried about Kyrgyzstan. We had such problems after all. But government is powerful not from powers. Government is powerful from people's trust. If people trust me, I will be a strong president. I can write myself any constitution, but will it keep me in power? The "Arab Spring," two revolutions in Kyrgyzstan prove: if people don't trust you, a contrived constitution cannot save you.