Juma Mosque in Guba. Photo by Claire A. Taiwan
Shhh! There's a mosque in Guba, site of unrest, and Muslims there -- or more notably Mountain Jews and Lezgins! -- but don't think they will have anything at all to do with the Arab Spring!
A few days ago I published a blog in which I questioned how EurasiaNet's Shahin Abbasov was covering the Guba demonstrations. He said,
Despite much online speculation, though, the protest was neither the work of opposition activists inspired by the Arab Spring, nor Islamists protesting government restrictions against practicing Muslims.
I asked, why can't we say Azerbaijan's protest is influenced by the Arab Spring and social media?
This is ridiculous. When are we going to get over this silly posturing that no protest anywhere ever has anything to do with social media or the Arab Spring spread by it? The reality is, every single protest of any size anywhere these days is influenced by the Arab Spring and by social media. It's now part of the DNA of protest everywhere, spread by the self-same mobile phones and viral social media. Why is there this constant effort to dismiss it and even ridicule those with "the Arab Spring frame"?
There has been a constant pious orthodoxy maintained around the question of the "Arab Spring frame" by Eurasianet and of course Registan.net -- and the liberals in general. We must never, ever say that the Arab Spring can "spread," or conclude that just because there are lots of Muslims in Central Asia, and they live under tyranny just like Arabs have, that there are any real parallels to be drawn.
Nonsense, I've always said, because even if we all "get it" that the stans are not going to see waves of public unrest and dictators toppling any time soon (and specifically in Guba, there didn't seem to be organized Islamist opposition behind the discontent with the governor), there will be stuff happening and it will indeed be an echo of the Arab Spring (more than the colour revolutions, certainly).
Islamic unrest has been an issue in Azerbaijan, although secular intellectuals wish it weren't.
Now Abbasov has taken a second stab at this story, this time by actually getting out of the capital and going to Guba -- or at least calling people there -- and now he has this revised version to say about it all in, Is Guba Protest Response a Harbinger of a Political Shift in Baku?
And now he's willing at least to allow one of the people on the scene to mention the dreaded "Arab Spring" concept:
One former presidential-aide-turned-opposition-activist, Eldar Namazov, believes that Guba may be a sign of changing times, saying that in the aftermath of the Arab Spring in 2011, Azerbaijani officials are more attuned to public opinion. Other opposition members have asserted the same.
“The opposition, civil society activists and experts during recent years have continuously expressed concerns about the existence of serious social, economic and political problems in Azerbaijan and have called on the authorities to start a dialogue with civil society [groups and activists],” Namazov said.
This, despite the admonition last week, "Despite much online speculation, though, the protest was neither the work of opposition activists inspired by the Arab Spring, nor Islamists protesting government restrictions against practicing Muslims."
Well, this is the EurasiaNet clarification and caveat, then -- opposition people are never supposed to be actually inspired by the Arab Spring -- lest we think especially that they are Muslims agitating for more Islam -- but officials can be influenced of it. This is sort of an "Arab Spring Bounce" theory -- it affects the rulers in Azerbaijan by its negative example of what could happen if corrupt and oppressive officials don't shape up and dialogue with civil society -- whatever that means! -- and become "better". Or get fired by the president (who has to have a hand in every single affair).
Aliyev stayed close on this one:
In an interview with EurasiaNet.org, Guba parliamentarian Vahid Ahmadov, a non-aligned politician who played a key role in convincing demonstrators to disperse, emphasized that President Aliyev “gave a clear order that weapons should not be used against protesters.” Ahmadov also stressed that the president, during the clashes, stayed in constant phone contact with Transportation Minister Ziya Mammadov, who was widely seen as Habibov’s political patron.
(I have a little difficulty believing that there is anything in Azerbaijan that can be fairly described as a "non-aligned politician" but in fact Ahmadov did play a documented role in calming demonstrators. And that while his online footprint revealing that his religion is described as "Judaism," or that he believes "only Putin" can solve the protracted Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, or that we must insist on Azerbaijan's "territorial integrity," or that there was a "genocide" committed in Guba in 1918 by the Armenians against the Azerbaijanis might mean in American terms that he was engagé, in the terms of Azerbaijan, he is as plain-vanilla as they come without turning into a scoop of ice cream.)
There's also definitely a social media factor -- somebody uploaded that Youtube!
One local civil society activist told EurasiaNet.org that investigators are checking local Internet cafes in an apparent attempt to determine who posted the video on YouTube in which Habibov makes the controversial comments that incited the protest. They are also reportedly trying to find out who posted comments on social networks calling for residents to take to the streets. The activist could not confirm reports of arrests being made.
I don't know why Abbasov still doesn't mention that this was a land-related dispute -- free land given to people was then "sold for a song" which prompted the governor to disparage the locals saying they were "traitors" because they sold free land, apparently. But this may have been taken out by EurasiaNet's editor, who can believe local details like that "ruin the flow of the narrative."
But it isn't so much about the specifics, perhaps, but about that dissing of male pride that can get people so angry:
Guba parliamentarian Ahmadov, indeed, noted that "[t]he problem [with Habibov] has been brewing for a long time.” Without getting into specifics, he said “it is not the first time when Habibov offended local residents and ignored the people of Guba.” The recent YouTube video, in which Habibov characterizes Guba residents as penny-pinching traitors, simply proved “the last straw,” he said.
While this "riot" (now Abbasov is avoiding that word he used in his first story and calling it "an outburst," "a protest" characterized also by "clashes" with police) ended well with Habibov's firing and the release (reportedly) of several dozen jailed protesters, it may spread.
Then sources are cited who would be called "senior fellows" if they were in Washington:
Political analyst Elkhan Shahinoglu, the head of Baku’s Atlas research center, believes that the government now finds itself confronted by a dilemma about how to respond to what he terms an unexpectedly serious message about the population’s level of discontent.
"The immediate fulfillment of the protesters' demands by the government could indeed be considered by some as a weakness. Unhappy people in other regions could consider that now they can protest freely and even burn houses, and the government would step back,” said Shahinoglu. “I do not know how the authorities will handle this difficult situation.”
Indeed!
This time, too, EurasiaNet's editors fail to state that Abbasov is on the board of their foundation in Baku, saying he is merely "a freelance reporter". Or did he step down?
The government may have already sensed the unrest in places like Guba and become alarmed at possible "usurpers" and "intriguers" from abroad by possibly signalling to the Soros operation that it must close or "revise itself" or whatever it is that it is doing ... I will attempt to parse this soon.
