This is my little blog on Tajikistan that comes out on Saturdays. I was travelling abroad and working on a project this last month so I missed two weeks, but I hope to be back on track. If you are reading this on TinyLetter you will have to come to my blog Different Stans for the links in RU and TJ as these are blocked by this mail system. Write me at [email protected] with comments or requests to be added to the mailing list.
HEADLINES
o US Secretary of State Visits Tajikistan
o Tajik President Calls on Army to Resist External Threats
o Journalist Stabbing a Warning for Tajik Opposition
COMMENTARY
Assistant Secretary of State Robert O. Blake, Jr. visited Dushanbe February 20-21 and met with President Emomali Rahmon. There is nothing on the US Embassy Dushanbe web site (yet) about this meeting, and only a picture on the Embassy Facebook page; very little anywhere else.
The independent Tajik press reported an alleged offer to make Tajikistan available for NATO equipment withdrawals, but the official did not seem very high level and later the same press reported just on the English-language page reported "Washington reprotedly does not plan to use Tajikistan’s infrastructure during the withdrawal of its troops from Afghanistan." So the US seemed to be saying "thanks but no thanks". Too mountainous?
Into this vacuum of information steps a Russian analyst as usual, speculating that the purpose of Blake's trip was to shore up commitments from Dushanbe to let US and NATO military "obyekty" (installations) stay on the territory of Tajikistan. It's interesting that he doesn't say "troops," although there are some US "troops" in Tajikistan doing training and advising. He talks about the "obyekty" (facilities) which in a sense are what the US is already helping with by donating equipment.
The Russian analyst Anatoly Knyazev from the Institute for Oriental Studies believes the US will bribe officials and support a "thin layer" of students and nationalist intellectuals ("thin layer" is old Soviet Pravda parlance for a discredited social class not according to the Marxist-Leninist plan). This "thin layer" - the Oreo cookie filling smushed between Russia and the US and ready to be dipped into the milk of China (so I'm visualizing vividly now) is not really going to be allowed to succeed, as the US won't fund them, but they will be used to put pressure on Rahmon. Mkay.
Meanwhile, USAID is busy funding comic books in the Tajik language, so I don't think anyone's going to be colouring outside the lines...
Note that in the US photo op, Rahmon is smiling and the chandelier is featured. Note that in the Tajik photo op Rahmon is frowning and the wallpaper is featured. Also, note that the flower display at these things are always done beautifully.
The Tajik military parade last week provided an opportunity for Dushanbe to show off their hardware including some still-shiny Chaikas. Haven't seen those in awhile.
The trial of the suspect in the killing of the security official in Badakhshan last year has opened, and surprise, surprise, it's behind closed doors.
There was a bit of a kerfluffle with an Iranian presidential candidate speaking of a "Greater Iran" and Iran "taking back" Tajikistan, Armenian and Azerbaijan, but...well, when we saw the phrase "presidential candidate" we knew that this story couldn't be true, because those things are real in the Iranian dictatorship. Anyway, Ahmadineajad is coming to Dushanbe for the spring festival of Novruz in a few weeks and surely they'll sort things out. Meanwhile, we learn from RFE/RL and @eTajikistan that 29% of the 2000 plus foreign students in Tajikistan come from Iran.
Other comments in italics below.
U.S. Official Calls For Fair Tajik Presidential Election
U.S. Assistant Secretary for South and
Central Asian Affairs Robert Blake has called on Tajikistan's leadership
to hold a fair, democratic, and transparent presidential election in
November.
Blake started his two-day visit to Dushanbe on February 20 and has met with NGO representatives and civil-society activists.
No doubt this meeting had more people in it than Blake's meeting in Turkmenistan.
Assistant
Secretary of State for Central and South Asia Robert O. Blake, Jr. and
President Emomali Rahmon of Tajikistan, February 20, 2013. Photo by President.tj.
President.tj reports:
It was emphasized that the US continues to provide support to Tajikistan's initiatives to intensify its struggle with terrorism, extremism, unlawful narcotics trade, and to further assist in the strengthening of the defense of the state borders with Afghanistan, and material and technical provision of the relevant state agencies.
Tajik Ambassader Wants Tajikistan Off Jackson-Vanik (h/t @ericamarat
DUSHANBE, February 14, 2013, Asia-Plus -- Tajik Ambassador to the United States, Nouriddin Shamsov, has called on Washington to remove Tajikistan from Jackson-Vanik restrictions.
According to Silk Road Newsline, Ambassador Shamsov has noted that Tajik economy shows steady progress, the country will officially join the WTO on March 2, 20012 and it’s time for the United States to graduate Tajikistan from the restrictive Jackson-Vanik amendment.
“My government anticipates continuing effective bilateral cooperation with U.S. Government to lift as soon as possible the Jackson-Vanik amendment which would impede as we do believe full fledged membership of Tajikistan in the WTO and further promotion of bilateral trade and investment relations with the Unites States of America,” Shamsov told a panel on the WTO at the at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute (CACI) in Washington on February 13.
"No Obstacle" to NATO Transit Through Tajikistan h/t@TheBugPit
Tajikistan is ready to offer its territory for transit of freight by
international allied forces in Afghanistan, and there are no obstalces
regarding this issue. Davlat Nazriev, head of the Agency for
Information, Press Analysis and Foreign Policy Planning of the Foreign
Affairs of Tajikistan announced at a briefing.
"In the event of an appeal from any country, this question will be reviewed through the established procedures," he emphasized.
Russian Analyst Sees Blake's Trip as Demand for Support of US and NATO Installations
The purpose of Robert Blake's visit to Dushanbe is to obtain a final decision on the issue of deploying American and NATO military facilities on the territory of Tajikistan, since the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan has already begun, and the US immediately demands hard guarantees, says Aleksandr Knyazev, coordinator of regiona programs for the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Seciences, regnum.ru reported February 20.
In the expert's opinion, "It is still not too late for Russia to stop this process, otherwise before the end of this year, another process may be initiated regarding the withdrawal of the Russian military base from Tajikistan. Evidently the US is placing its bets on Rahmon according to the principle, 'he's a bastard but our bastard," and it's understandable that they are absolutely indifferent to the nation of this regime when it's a question of the strategic plans for deploying part of the troops withdrawn from Afghanistan in the countries of the region."
Knyazev sees the situation crudely -- bribes to key officials, and support for a "thin layer of Westernized youth" and some of the intelligentsia that are "nationalist-minded" and see the West as "the lesser of two evils". This "layer" will activate "numerous Western NGOs for 'colour scenarios', not to really bring them about but as "a lever of pressure on Rahmon".
Photo by US Embassy Tajikistan
Deputy Chief of Mission, Sarah Penhune participated in a donation ceremony at the Border Guard Facility in Dushanbe. Ms. Penhune remarked, “The United States Government shares the goals of the Government of Tajikistan to combat the threat of contraband and drug trafficking and recognizes that keeping Tajikistan’s borders secure is a national priority. The Border Guards are the first line of defense for Tajikistan from external threats, and they are frequently required to carry out this important work with limited resources, in very difficult terrain, and often during very challenging weather conditions. The U. S. Embassy EXBS and OMC programs are pleased to assist the Border Guard in their efforts to combat the threat of contraband and drug trafficking.”
Where the Chaikas are still in service...Tajik Military Parade, Photo: Presidential Press Service.
Tajik President Calls on Army to Resist External Threats
At a meeting to honour the 20th anniversary of Tajikistan's Armed Forces, the president called on the military and law-enforcement agencies to take into account growing "threats of modernity" such as terrorism, extremism and narcotics, regnum. ru and president.tj reported.
"I have noted many times and emphasize once again that security the security of the state and nation, protecting civilian life and the socio-economic development of the country directly depends on the political situation, law and order, guarantee of the rule of law, combatting crime and protecting our boarders," the news agency Avesta reported, citing the president.
Two suspects in the high-profile killing of a top security official have
gone on trial in Tajikistan's restive Gorno-Badakhshan region.
Supreme Court judge Mirzoali Karimov confirmed to RFE/RL that the trial
started on February 19 in the southeastern province's capital, Khorugh.
The sessions are being held behind closed doors.
Tajik Activist Stabbed in Moscow
A well-known Tajik journalist and activist has been stabbed in Moscow.
Bakhtior Sattori told RFE/RL in a telephone interview on February 20 that an unknown assailant attacked him near his apartment.
Sattori said he was stabbed in the stomach and face on February 19.
Tajik Investigator Gets Two-Year Prison Sentence For Suspect's Death
A court in Dushanbe has sentenced police investigator Abdurahmon Dodov
to two years in prison for negligence that caused a suspect's death in
custody.
In 2011, Bahromiddin Shodiev was arrested in Dushanbe on suspicion of theft.
The following day, he was taken in a comatose state to a hospital, where he died 10 days later.
Before he died, Shodiev regained consciousness and told relatives he had
been beaten until he confessed to crimes he had not committed.
Journalists Stabbing a Warning for Tajik Opposition ht/ @randomdijit
A Russian human rights activist who has worked closely with Sattori suggests [ru] that the assault on Sattori was a “political order,” and that the journalist was punished for his ties with Quvvatov and his recent attempts to mobilize international pressure in order to prevent the politician's extradition to Tajikistan. It is unclear what the journalist himself makes of the attack. In his interview with Radio Ozodi, Sattori said [ru] he did not know whom to blame for an apparent attempt on his life. A bit later, however, he told [ru] BBC he knew who was behind the attack, suggesting also that this was a powerful person within the Tajik government.
@asodiqovIs the stabbing of a Tajik journalist a taste of things to come ahead of presidential election? http://goo.gl/XjNPx #Tajikistan #Sattori
Ukrainian Court Extends Detention For Former Tajik Prime Minister
A court in Ukraine has ruled that former Tajik Prime Minister Abdumalik
Abdullojonov can be held in detention for up to 40 days while
authorities await documents from Dushanbe regarding his possible
extradition.
Abdullojonov was arrested on February 5 at Boryspil Airport near Kyiv on
an international warrant after arriving from the United States.
Salimboy has raised 41% of the $1075 he needs for a small business.
Could you buy some mutton for Abdumanon or livestock for Salimboy? Or perfume for Sanifa?
$17,696,350 have been lent to projects in Tajikistan through Kiva.
A Greater Iran? h/t @joshuakucera (Translation from Russian)Tajikistan's Foreign Ministry has made an official announcementi n which it has condemned the statement by Ayatollah Said Muhammad Bokiri Harrozi, a presidential candidate, that in the event that he becomes president of Iran, then Tajikistan, Armenia and Azerbaijan will be returned to Iran, news.tj reported.
The Foreign Minister noted that the statement appeared on http://cheshmandaz.org on February 5.
Iranian President to Visit Tajikistan in March
Ahmadinejad will visit Tajikistan in the last week of March to meet with the Tajik president, attend Novruz celebrations, and attend the launch of Sangtuda Hydropower Station No. 2
Most Foreign Students in Tajikistan for Iran h/t @eTajikistan
eTajikistan @eTajikistan#Tajikistan's 2130 foreign univ students: Iran 29%, Turkmenistan 17%, Uzbekistan 12% Afghan 11% India 9% http://www.ozodi.org/content/article/24910091.html … @RadioiOzodi
Now here's the Russian which will be easier for many to read.
Video by state.gov
Secretary of State Kerry Discovers "Kyrzakstan"
Tengrinnews.kz and other regional media poked fun at newbie Secretary of State John Kerry when he seemed to speak of a new country, "Kyrzakstan," in his speech at the University of Virginia at Charlottesville. They picked up Global Post's coverage of Kerry's speech -- no other US or English-speaking media seems to have the story. Said Kerry:
"They support democratic transitions in 'Kyrzakhstan' and Georgia, mindful from our own experience that it takes a long time to get democracy right, and that it rarely happens right away.”
In a telephone conversation Kerry also thanked Kazakhstan for agreeing to hold talks on Iran's nukes.
State.gov's transcript has it correctly as "Kyrgyzstan". But at about 30:14 or so on the video tape, you can hear Kerry make a slight muff of the name of this Central Asian country. Even so, the overall message in support of democracy, lest anyone think only the neo-cons will carry this torch, is clear:
We value human rights, and we need to tell the story of America’s good work there, too. We know that the most effective way to promote the universal rights of all people, rights and religious freedom, is not from the podium, not from either end of Pennsylvania Avenue. It’s from the front lines – wherever freedom and basic human dignity are denied. And that’s what Tim Kaine understood when he went to Honduras.
The brave employees of State and USAID – and the Diplomatic Security personnel who protect the civilians serving us overseas – work in some of the most dangerous places on Earth, and they do it fully cognizant that we share stronger partnerships with countries that share our commitment to democratic values and human rights. They fight corruption in Nigeria. They support the rule of law in Burma. They support democratic institutions in Kyrgyzstan and Georgia, mindful from our own experience that it takes a long time to get democracy right, and that it rarely happens right away.
In the end, all of those efforts, all of that danger and risk that they take, makes us more secure. And we do value democracy, just as you’ve demonstrated here at UVA through the Presidential Precinct program that’s training leaders in emerging democracies.
@edwardlucas Byebye water melons, hello gas & oil #Tajikistan nat gas reserves est 2x #Norway's. … via @TajAnalytical @eTajikistan
@joshuakucera
Wow: so is this natural gas find in Tajikistan for real? Double Norway's reserves?
Children Get Help from MSF on Drug-Resistant TB
o Julie Judkins, representative of the Appalachian Trail, visited Tajikistan recently through a US program and spoke about the importance of community trails.
o @USAIDCtrAsiaWe hosted a training for 18 #Tajik children’s book writers/illustrators to improve books in #mothertongue & we'll publish 30 new kid's books
Dushanbe apartment building, September 2012. Photo by Eric Haglund.
