By Catherine A. Fitzpatrick
What was the purpose of the assassination of Dugina?
To distract us from the daily horrors of the war in Ukraine.
So backdate from that purpose to figure out who might be involved.
Cathy Young has a very good, definitive piece at the Bulwark which is a great publication.
o There hasn't been an assassination related to the war in Ukraine since Boris Nemtsov in 2015, on the eve of a march against both the war in Ukraine and the economic crisis (I think). Of course a lot happens outside Moscow and we don't know everything that happens. Yevgeny Kham, the Buryat editor who apparently died of his wounds in 2017 after a severe beating in 2015, who had run critical coverage of the war, is said to have been attacked for other stories. Still, it's not a common occurrence at all. Arrests, yes. Assassinations, no - although I can't help thinking I must be missing something obvious. So someone felt "it's time" in whatever department or faction.
o Goble reported that Sasha Verkhovsky recently came out with a report saying nationalist violence is less than it has been because the regime has suppressed it. This was before Dugina's car bombing but it is a very important context, read all the way through and Sasha's full report as well.
So...this suggests that it's not the nationalists themselves targeting each other (because they are suppressed) and maybe bolsters the idea that the FSB or GRU did a false flag but then, we've all been over this "Putin's brain" stuff -- he's not, and Putin, as chair of the board of Moscow State University, ordered him fired from his position there after he began calling for the killing of Ukrainians openly on social media back in 2014-2015, posting photos of himself with a bazooka;
That is, you'd have to figure out why the FSB/GRU would do a false flag when they don't need to as it's not like anti-war resistance is a factor in Russia, or that there is some strong nationalist movement that thinks Russia looks bad by prosecuting this war...or something.
o Russia was just rocked by another crisis involving a prominent regime supporter, Senator Isakov, and his daughter, who openly opposed the war, and maybe "someone" felt there needed to be "balance" to put the focus on the nationalists as victims again, not Ukrainians. Maybe there is just free-lancing craziness.
o Ponomarev has been flogging the need for an armed insurrection in Russia on talk shows and social media recently and now the announcement of the National Republic Army (NRA) (what an acronym!) came simultaneously with the assassination of Dugina. The NRA is something he thinks needs to come into being and maybe has, but I don't know -- some group or groups are blowing up all those recruiting stations and military targets in Russia and it's not likely Ukraine -- and maybe has nothing to do with Ponomarev or his circle. In 2017, he was meeting with another Russian MP, Denis Voronenkov, who had also fled Ukraine, when Voronekov was assassinated. Ponomaryev fled first to the US, then later to Ukraine, after turning in the sole vote against the annexation of Crimea as then a member of the State Duma. He told Meduza the NRA takes responsibility for the assassination of Dugina and says it is in retaliation for her call to murder Azov battalion members. He is sketchy on the details and himself says he can't confirm it, and I'm skeptical.
o Ukrainians wouldn't target a second-tier nationalist/extremist now, would they? Unless opportunity/gaps in security enabled them? A lot of Russian nationalists have been killed fighting in Ukraine. But why has there been nothing like this in 8 and a half years in Russia? The Ukrainian government denies involvement and says, "We don't work like this."
o Someone should compare and contrast the car bombs used to assassinate those 8 or so "DNR angels" - the the top Donesk People's Republic leaders and fighters.
o They need to target a nationalist either for cause or in a false flag operation? But...who's left? COVID took Zhirinovsky; Yegor Prosvirnin, the young fascist with hipster followers, was defenestrated possibly at his own initiative; Strelkov/Girkin thrives but is critical of the war's inefficiencies and visible only on YouTube; so maybe there isn't a good/pure target these days? I just don't know. Certainly Dugin's vocal supporters blamed Ukraine at the funeral and the state media is doing so and a Fanya Kaplan like figure, a Ukrainian who went to Estonia, has already been fingered.
I agree with Victor Davidoff (cited by Cathy) that the "Fanya Kaplan" kind of episode (attempted to assassinate Lenin) can usher in another wave of terror. Except...we already have terror, and plenty of it, in Ukraine obviously and it has been in Russia all this time.
And why a figure who is *not* Putin's brain, why not someone actually in the regime or a more establishment, accepted figure? Then it's like Kirov or Lenin -- Dugin is not that kind of figure. So why not Surkov (who seems irrelevant now but still, it would have to be a figure without heavy government security).
o The "ritual murder" stuff is cried by ordinary people on social media as well as Kremlin propagandists every time an opposition figure is murdered so it's not surprising to see it now about the nationalists, but whatever Dugin's wacky writings on this subject, I hardly think he would go to this extreme with his own daughter when he doesn't need to. I think he seems genuinely upset. Someone was able to frame his terribly distraught face as he clutched his hands to his head as the bomb went off -- that suggests planning (like those 3 camera angles at the Odessa trade union building fire). He was weeping and shaking as he spoke at the funeral. But who knows?
o We see so many horrible, horrible things done in Ukraine for no other reason than escalating the horror and intimidation, and maybe that's all that is operating here. Opportunism. Overkill. Somebody wishing to please Putin ostensibly.
o When was the last time a woman was able to *safely* lead a political group of any kind in Russia besides Sobchak, who is basically in tune with the regime now despite her Telegram channel? There's that. Seems more likely Dugin himself was targeted -- but then precisely because of both vicious and casual misogyny, Dugina could have been targeted; there is this odd story about a relationship to Le Pen.
I agree that while you can certainly find many aspects of Dugina's own career to be despicable, not to mention her murderous father's campaigns, it's wrong to take glee in their misfortune. A trial in an international tribunal or independent and just court in Russia, should it ever come into being, would be highly preferable for the sake of the society's future. And for practical reasons, people never are converted by torture and murder and only become more radicalized.
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