Marshrutki -- fixed-route taxis -- in Kyrgyzstan. Photo by RFE/RL.
Kurmanbek Bakiyev fled the capital to his stronghold in the south" (as the newspapers breathlessly told us), is now evidently in Kazakhstan.
OSCE Chair-in-office Kazakh Foreign Minister Kanat Saudabayev announced yesterday that he had made a deal to get Bakiyev to leave his homeland to restore peace to Kyrgyzstan following days of revolution that at times turned violent and brought a new social democratic interrim government to power, including some of his once-comrade-at-arms from the last revolution.
The news was predicted (leaked?) at least 72 hours previously, as can be seen by twittering to the effect that Saudabayev himself was going to come and personally escort Bakiyev out of the ring. More likely the original Russian said that Bakiyev's departure would be pod kontrol' (i.e. under his supervision) of the C-i-O. Of course, that would lower the prestige of office for the C-i-O himself to have done this in person.
Whilt the subject of effusive praise from CSCE and grudging admiration even from Kazakh C-i-O skeptics, Saudabayev was still careful to make this new dictator pick-up-service a definite collaborative group effort, as he noted:
"Today, on April 15, as a result of joint efforts of Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev, U.S. President Barack Obama and Russia's President Dmitriy Medvedev, as well as active mediation by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, along with the United Nations and the European Union, an agreement was reached with the Interim Government of Kyrgyzstan and President Kurmanbek Bakiyev on his departure from the country."
One marvels that it took all these world leaders and three big acronym organizations -- what my dad used to call "three men and a dog" -- to get one discredited dictator to depart his country. But it did take that, because it wasn't just about one guy, but his extended clan, and for other reasons, including the "Lenin log" phenomenon (whereby lots of people wanted credit for helping Lenin lift a log, way more than could have possibly fit under said log).
Naturally, there's a rising tide of expectations from some consumers of this new pick-up service. One wonders when they will be available to help Belarus dictator Lukashenka on his way to...Caracas, for example. Or Uzbekistan's Islam Karimov on his way to...Rio? Maybe he could take his expensive soccer coach back to sunnier climes. If OSCE doesn't have a budget for this sort of bag work, I think there would be some people who would kick in to cover expenses.
Joking aside, the Kazakh chair has achieved something that probably nobody else would have been able to, given Russia's interests and the U.S. interests and their conflict. Now, perhaps it was all the more easier to do because Russia was behind it all along and Kazakh tends to collaborate with Russia, as some have it, but I actually don't think so. I think the Kazakh chair saw that he was going to have to behave like any other chair would, and so something constructive about this OSCE region crisis, and it was a little too late for "peace talks".
Of course, we'll be able to tell the sincerity of this act by what comes next. If it turns out this new government flouders, even being recognized too early by Putin and rather late by Obama (time difference I guess *cough*), and then suddenly needs "help" by the CSTO base going in (a distinct possibility), or "advisers" in the form of trained U.S. special forces (less likely, in my view), well, I'll guess we'll see who is working for whom.
For now, I think we should bask in the glory of the much-discredited chair having finally done an unquestionable good deed, and take it for what it is.
As for this claim:
"This development is an important step towards the stabilization of the situation, a return to a framework providing for the rule of law, and the prevention of a civil war in Kyrgyzstan."'
Again, the appetite grows with the eating, as they say. Could we have something like this in Georgia -- and hey, why couldn't we have something like this in Georgia back then? Oh. You can imagine that a country's leader might start not wanting to take calls from OSCE C-i-Os, like they don't want to take calls from the UN special representive on genocide prevention.
CSCE also sees Bakiyev's departure as a sign of "stabilization":
“The fact all flights resumed today at Manas Transit Center is a sign of stabilization in Kyrgyzstan. The importance of U.S. engagement there goes beyond Manas, although the airport remains important to transporting U.S. military equipment and personnel to Afghanistan,” Cardin added. “Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s dispatching of Assistant Secretary Robert O. Blake Jr. to the country this week for meetings with provisional government leaders further demonstrates the significance of U.S. engagement during this period.”
I'm among those who tend to see an American base supporting the war in Afghanistan as not necessarily a stabilizing factor for these fragile Central Asian countries, even if there is some kind of short-term benefit to sustaining the war effort. I think we're going to see a lot more Latin Americanization of Central Asia before all this is over. It's not really "stability" when the U.S. has not been able to win the war after nine years anyway, and when now, the U.S. can't mount its war from nearby Pakistan, its ally in said war, due to terrorists attacking its truck convoys -- also supported by elements of that ally's intelligence service -- and has to then find other routes in other places and make other friends with people who aren't exactly friends of democracy. It's sad that "stability" has been cast in terms not of an end to bloodshed and looting and a more legitimate set of rulers taking power (we hope), but whether or not a base gets to have flights to a war.
To be sure, CSCE has also put down the markers for legitimacy and participation of civil society:
“I hope Bakiev’s departure will help the provisional government to
establish legitimacy within the rule of law,” Co-Chairman Hastings said.
“Leaders of the provisional government now have the opportunity to
build democracy and respect for human rights. We hope they will move
forward transparently and with the participation of civil society, and
we look forward to working with them and the people of Kyrgyzstan
towards that end.”
As for Asst. Secretary Robert Blake taking on the Kygyz engagement account, I'm troubled given some of his wan and even evasive answers regarding Uzbekistan's appalling human rights record when visiting there last October and his fumble on Turkmenistan last September after Secretary Clinton met with President Berdymukhamedov, "Human rights is not as big an issue in Turkmenistan as it is in some of the other Central Asian countries."
As we know, human rights appear "not to be as big an issue" in Turkmenistan because, well, there are a lot less of them, and a lot of the suffering is out of sight and out of mind without any free press, as there is at least struggling to exist in Kyrgyzstan. Let's hope that when engaging with democrats in the new Kyrgyz government Mr. Blake himself will be more forthcoming.
OSCE van in the mountains of Kosovo. Photo by osce.org.
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