Second Thoughts

BOYCOTT Arcade - And Especially These $100 Gatchas; Protest Non-Transfer Gift

As I've been saying, we should BOYCOTT THE ARCADE. This is a big quarterly gatcha event in Second Life where hordes of avatars will pull the lever on gatcha machines, which are like gumball machines with random prizes, and pay anywhere from $25 to $50 to $75 to even $100 per pull in order to mainly get repeats of common items they don't want, which they'll have to sell for 20% or 50% off or more, in the effort to get more coveted rare items they have little change of getting.

Now the organizers have instituted an even more insidious avatar-sticker to drain accounts, which is a 50-pull prize which is not on transfer so you can't sell it.

What this accomplishes deviously is a flood of the gatcha markets with unwanted dupes that devalues the markets just like the LindEx just got devalued. Deliberate? Any of the same actors? 

I've linked my call to a boycott to Arcade NOT because I'm claiming that Arcade merchants and organizers caused the LindEx crash. There's no evidence they did. But they contribute to it by inaction in failing to a) admit there is a problem and b) protest to the Lindens about it. These high-end merchans make so much cash that the loss of $2.70 per 10,000 Linden cashout compared to last month doesn't bother them because they either don't care or they can take some of their thousands of Linden dollars and park them on the LindEx at higher values and wait for a change. That is in part what is contributing to the problem.

The reaction of merchants as you can see on Plurk and Sluniverse is denial, belligerence, hatred of small and medium amateur or common merchants (such fear of competition and class war, I guess), and then claims that it is the buy-out -- i.e. another class of people to blame, not creators and merchants. Of course, as I've explained repeatedly, this is bullshit, as even if the 1000 islands that emerged as grandfathered in the buyout (according to Tyche Shepherd's estimate) were true, that's only $600,000 (1000 x $600 buydown fee) that would have sought to leave SL --- and already left. That might explain the drop of a point; it doesn't explain the sudden drop of 13 or 15 points even as a putative trigger of a panic.

Manipulation of the LindEx is obvious to any naked eye that watches it for 15 or 60 minutes. I see 12 million Linden packets simply disappearing from their positions, and not adding to buy side as they would if they were speculators. It's hard for me to believe that anybody would bother much to try to make cash off the Lindex as the cost in fees and the risk is too great.

eku Zhong is the latest FIC on Sluniverse.com to keep claiming that it's the buydown with no proof because not only did she not participate in the offer, none of her friends did and almost no one on Sluniverse is describing actually using their horded Linden dollars. So you have a class of snotty, snobbish people speculating about what another class of people are doing economically -- a class they loathe and actively agitate against -- and sorry, that doesn't make for good analysis.

eku believes the crisis is "passing" because the LindEx positions fell about 2-3 points today (the higher the number of Linden dollars to the US dollar, the less value they have). There's no evidence this is the end, and if the result means we all fall to 260 or even 255 as "stable," why, we've lost considerable value given that only in April, we were at 248.

So Arcade is about the glut the secondary market -- and that looks deliberate. Creators are uneasy about this market because they sweat and labor over a hot Blender all day only to see an item that sold for $50 go for $1500 on the MP, and maybe change hands multiple times with that cash not going to the creator.

To which I can say, too bad, then stop selling in gatchas and put items in your store in copy/mod/no transfer for a normal price.

The organizers of Arcade have gotten as greedy as ever -- I don't know what they charge merchants and possibly even bloggers (I should say "bloggers" as they are merely PR people, uncritical of the event or its works) to participate, but now they've found YET ANOTHER way to drain the consumer public -- payment of $2500 (!) to have your name put on a plaque onsite -- like you would pay for a pew or statue in a church, for example. This is ridiculous and outrageous.

Don't forget that the expenses these people have is only $195 x 2 for the sims, or $295 x 2 if they didn't grandfather them, which is hard to believe. They ALREADY have donation kiosks on site which many people stupidly pump money into thinking there isn't something altruistic about these merchants and organizers. Of course there isn't.

Any/all of them make literally thousands of real life US dollars from this event from your pulls, and you need to stop, think of your consumer power, and insist on changes -- an immediate end to no-transfer prizes, an end to gouging above $75, and a statement to the Lindens about concern over the LindEX.

I'm happy to see that most authors aren't charging $100, but way too many charge $75 as "the new normal" instead of $25 or $50. Here are those charging $100 that you should boycott at least at the level of quietly never pulling their levers even if you don't want to join my group and publicly boycott this event.

Azoury

Candydoll

D-Lab

Rein

Please don't tell me that because these creators have lingerie or shoulder pets that are "more complicated" they get to charge $100. Others with the exact same kind of lingerie and shoulder pets are in this same Arcade and charge $50. Don't pay $100 to these gougers. If they want to sell items like this, they should put them in their store on copy/transfer and not be so greedy. I should think transfer/no copy clothing items are the worst because you could easily edit them and ruin the item and lose your $100.

As for these much-touted no-transfer prizes for a whopping 50 pulls -- twice as many as at Epiphany, Fantasy Collective, or whoever has done this redemption/prize thing for pulls -- they are as disappointing as you'd expect -- as they were at Epiphany, etc. as well.

The only two stand-out items that I might regret a boycott over are the phantom's organ by Fancy Decor and the beauty kit by tres blah. But I have a perfectly good organ already that I purchased for under the $2500 that I'd have to shell out for Jake's organ, nice as it is. And the problem with beauty items I've found is that they are hard to re-sell. 

Same with food items (which is what tres blah's item is, honey, etc). This gatcha round has WAY too much food (because of the summer picnic themes) that cannot sell. Look, I've shopped extensively and know this market well now. Food does not sell and people are forced to mark it down to $15 to unload it. None of it dispenses, like KitchenKorner old-school food items do. It's only decorative and I think most people feel a little cheated if they get nothing on a click. I buy some of it because it is pretty but hopefully it is on mod so I can at least make something myself or use some old freebie thing I can dispense with it.

Even things that you'd think I'd like, such as Scarlet Creative's "fancy" gazebo and keke's beach hut (which looks like a gazebo) I don't like but then, it's hard for me to ever buy another gazebo, ever, in my life. WAY too many in SL.

Some comments (I tend to ignore clothes and accessories unless really stand-out jewelry so the focus here is on furniture and decor).

Little Bones gets a plus even for $75 overpriced gatchas by making these make-up items animated.

PixelMode's Anahata is just $50 a play, and the quality seems good and texture change on a number of items which is great and thoughtful. Of course, nearly every single one of these items I already have, some nearly identical, from other authors. Morocco and Arabia is a very overdone theme in SL especially with the heavy Gor influence. But since I have a Moroccan build (in Ross, the "Memory Bazaar") I will look for these at yardsales and I will be reporting soon -- I bet-- that I am finding them for half price.

aisling was my first gatcha overspend to get the headdress she had at Fantasy-something (Collective? Gatcha? Garden? whatever) - I finally got it, and along the way I got this body jewelry thing that I sold as a rare that didn't cover my over-pulls. I just tried to get her headdress again and failed. I collect these for my Shaman's Hut, they are perfect, even if men "don't wear them". I just like them. So I get gazillion pieces I don't want which I then simply give away as a present to female tenants as like a chocolate on their pillow or put to sale for $10 in my Flamingo Court office in Grote if you want any.

This one looks like it wouldn't induce me to excessive pulls because I don't want an Indian veil but the necklaces look great and have colour change on a HUD.

You would think because I run so many camps such as in Grote, Zephyr, Cayuga, and Hector that I would love camping gatchas and I often do. I put some of them in the camp store in Grote. But this one by Amala has drawbacks. The tents don't look like you can comfortably actually go in them -- they are sculptures you put out on your lot to give the illusion of a camp. The food items will be going for $15 in no time. The campfire looks to "drawn". So I'd have to see the actual items. The map is the only thing I'd want, I collect those as they make a nice touch to any rental.

anc is a very impressive artist -- an ethereal creature just too good for Second Life (they should be in some better metaversal setting, maybe that will be Sansar but likely not). If you ever go to anc's store, which is all in the dark with things lit up, you will be in pain from the beauty. But the stuff is often incomprehensible like those telegraph poles with the birds and the stairway leading nowhere. I don't know what the concept is here: glass coffins? You lie in them and write death poetry? I don't think so. The flowers are ugly and the birds are ok but then I already have a lot of your birds, guys.

Not surprisingly given the SL wedding season Aria has a bridal gatcha which isn't that inspiring but the colour-change rose looks promising and will likely sell for more than $50 and be the actual rare of this piece. Ugh, yet another dress form/mannekin. You know, I barely find uses for the Soy, Circa, and zillions of other mannekins already foisted on a public largely indifferent to mannekinism. Most people don't really enjoy having a somewhat creepy life-like figure in their bedroom or living room. So unless they make a sewing room (pretend) it's hard to justify. Yet for so many, nothing says "shabby shiny" like a mannekin, especially if draped in cobwebs or a Miss Haversham wedding dress -- which is the look you get with this rare. The other rare, a coral/rose sort of sofa is nice and worth it.

I generally appreciate Ariskea but of course any tiki theme has done literally a million times in SL and this one has no innovations except the hanging "nook" sort of chair. When will SL creators learn that we do NOT want lights on our furniture? They need to make these removable if nothing else.

This is $75, so don't spend your hard-earned Lindens here.

Astralia may win the prize for having the oddest thing but it's compelling -- wearable sushi and a sushi table you can lie on with colour change.  $75 so give it a token pull or two and move on but better to boycott and look for doubles on the yard sales.

One thing I really hate in a gatcha is when I have to risk getting 10 bras or panties I don't want to get an item of decor like the elephant here. That means I usually don't come near them. This is why yardsales exist, and why $75 will be a meaningless price very soon.

I'm skipping over items like terminally cute skateboards with animal heads, nekko headphones, totes with stupid sayings on them and I'll leave them for the 13-year-old girls that may be in SL or their male typists who are in their 40s.

Black Bantam always has odd stuff, and some of it NEVER sells at yard sales and I mean NEVER although some is coveted like the weatherbeaten dresser from a few gatchas ago. This driftwood horse is, well, different. The headdresses are worth it for my collection. The poms are very different and haven't seen anything like them in SL. I don't need a chair with a gourd on it, however, it's not Halloween even. And I don't want a poodle.

Beware of this $75 pull as you will be selling these items for $20 or less, believe me.

I bought brixley's kitchen at 6Republic (I think). So now they've  put more into a gatcha. It's brown, and not so impressive at first but maybe. $50 a play, thank you brixley!

I'm not a huge fan of Commoner, it's just a matter of taste like anything but it's a little too shiny and celluloid for me. This set is no different. A dress that only one kind of avatar skin thing can wear. Decor items that are the kind that rapidly sink to $20 or $15 at yardsales as they are so "personal". The pink cocktails -- ok, good.  Fortunately, $50 only!

This other gatcha from Commoner -- $25 only --  a photo box which is transferable (so not the 50 pull prize) is really great. Personalized as to letter and picture and opens. Very nice -- one of the best things in this Arcade.

I'll skip Contraption steam-punk stuff because none of their stuff from the last gatcha sold for me and I don't like steampunk that much -- if you'd like those rare wands or whatever with the gauntlets, IM me or look on the MP. 

D-Labs penguins with animations at $100 a pull just aren't worth it -- put it in your store, D-Lab, not a gatcha. Boycott these in particular. A pergola as a rare is stupid with the gadzillion pergolas in SL.

David Heather is always on the pricey side and these are $75. They also sell for more than pull price often so I suppose it's a good yardsale "investment". I don't like most of what he has but that's mainly because it is "personal" and I can't really put it in a rental (I do anyway in some B&Bs). This antique attic thing has been overdone to DEATH in SL but David has added at least two things I've never seen in SL: a rack of fur coats and a war medals plaque. Great for Russians! I like the travel chess -- also unique --  and I collect antler chairs against my better judgement.

The horse stool chair is actually pretty creepy and I bet we see that gobbled up and then marked down as such things are. Many of the other items like wine glasses or tea sets or picnic baskets have been done before, and better. But a few of the things in here are unique.

this is all I have time for now so I'll be back later.

 

BOYCOTT ARCADE!

BOYCOTT ARCADE!

Soon The Arcade Gatcha event will open on June 1, just a week away, one of the most popular events of the year.

If you've never heard of it, you can read about it here.

It's a giant fair like Coney Island where you can buy chances to win rare prizes and get a common prize each time, for any where from $25 to $100 per pull.

This event has gone from something known to a hard core of merchants and their fans, and involved mainly $25 items to a hugely crowded and popular event where you can't get into the sim for days, and when you do, you find you have to pay $85 or even $100 per pull on many machines.

This season, the organizers are offering a special prize if you make 50 pulls (!) -- a non-transferable items. That's unlike the prizes at other events for only 20 or 25 pulls, where the items were transferable, i.e. you could give them to friends or sell them.

This event comes at a time when consumers who want to buy Linden dollars are finding they can get the cheapest dollars ever in SL's history -- currently $9.91 will get you $2500 or $38.43 will get you 10,000 Lindens.

Go and buy these cheap dollars now!

LINDEX

It's good news for shoppers when dollars are cheap so help the economy and buy some. But it's bad news for business people as it means when we cash out these Linden dollars to pay tier or RL bills, the cash is devalued and we lose now at least $2.77 per L$10,000 exchange (the rate has gone from 249 to 263; the higher the number of Lindens to the dollar, the less value it has because it takes more of them).

Accordingly, these are the three demands for my call to BOYCOTT the Arcade -- a highly visible event with SL's top creators who are among those LEAST affected by the LindEx and who only stand to gain by hordes of shoppers pumping the levers of their gatcha machines. While a few have spoken out with concern, by and large this group is SILENT about the problem. That's why I urge action.

1. Urge the organizers to make a public statement to Linden Lab, asking them to show transparency about the LindEx, explain what they know about why it is happening, and what their plan is to stabilize it. Some are speculating that this drop in currency value is caused by the "buydown" offer of getting lower tier for a one-time fee of $600. But I and others don't believe these possible cashouts are enough to explain what is happening. We need information, and only LL has it.

2. Demand that the organizers switch to a transferable item for the special 50-pull prize. There is no reason not to allow transferable items -- that is the spirit of gatcha and the standard for every gatcha event, including redemptions or prize features we've seen at 2 or 3 other big events recently. Putting this prize at 50 pulls (!!!) is bad enough; making it impossible then to sell the item is unfair and greedy. Change this immediately.

3. Encourage creators to drop their prices below $80 to no higher than $75. Gatcha price creep is really getting to be a problem and is draining those of us devoted to this fun and rewarding form of shopping. Creators can't justify higher costs at all, and can't relate them to the LindEx drop because they began charging $100 months ago before that happened. Do the right thing and stop making these single no-copy items that in many cases are just fun outfits or decor so expensive!

As you can see, only no. 2 has a realistic chance of being accomplished, but that's fine, I feel it's worth making all 3 demands.

Please join the group if you support any or all of these demands. There is no cost and there are no group fees.

Use search/groups to find BOYCOTT ARCADE or go to the joiner in my office in Alston.

Further Research on the LindEx Crash

So I've been doing more investigation of this issue which I've discussed here, here and here.

We have almost no facts on this situation and only hearsay and speculation and deliberate disinformation, like Russia.

I've maintained that the drop in the LindEx -- now at 263, representing a plunge of 13 points in 3 days from 250! -- is about way more than the grandfather buydown offer.

It just can't be that there are -- as I keep saying -- 2,000 people with 358 million pent up trying to get out of SL who want to spend $600 that way to get the buydown.

So job one was to find a person who actually bought the buydown, as everybody thinks this is the reason, but none of the people claiming this are making those buys.

By tracking a comment down on a site I found a person who has a relatively large private island empire -- about 100 sims -- who said that she decided to "buy down" half of them. Since her profile said she had 90 sims, it was reasonable to note that she had bought the buydown for 40-50. So 45 x $600 = US $27,000. That's a lot of money, like paying rent for an entire year for some people.  So this person apparently had that money to spend from her island and content business. Or maybe she is wealthy in real life, but I think it's all from the business.

I IM her inworld, and here's the conversation -- I'm putting a fake name here as a courtesy, although normally when people get this nasty for  no reason, I publicize their names. (BTW, this poor woman needs to fix her settings so that her RL name and RL email do not transmit through SL unless she wants that).

UPDATE: No need for a fake name any more, this person has outed herself here. Her name is Hottie Something. She reports that she doesn't have 90 sims. She refuses to answer a simple question out of provincial prickly paranoia that somebody is getting into her business. Ridiculous. One of a zillion non-entities in SL that think some one cares about their RL information and who is unwilling to check and report facts. She admits to using SOME inworld Lindens for some UNKNOWN number of buydowns, but it's not 45. Let's say it's 10. That would be $6000. Let's say 1000 sims were bought this way as Tyche says (and all of them used inworld Lindens). That's only $600,000 guys, and spent BEFORE this started so it can't be the reason.

This person illustrates a phenomenon common to SL in communication:

a. She doesn't appear to be very bright (but actually appears to be adequately educated and intelligent once you look her up but you wouldn't know it here).

b. She doesn't listen i.e. read what the other person is typing to her and use common sense and reason to understand it.

c. She is unable to answer a question asked her 3-4 times repeatedly although it's a straightforward, normal question that there'd be no reason not to answer -- since it backs up  her claims in comments -- or doesn't.

d. For no reason, she gets brutal and nasty  -- see a) and b). This has to do with a prickly sense of both paranoia and entitlement that you often see among provincials.

Sorry, but comments like "What business is it of yours how they run their business" because people who affect the livelihoods of others and who make public comments and take public positions get to be asked by a free press what they are about. That's normal. That's how real life works. If you think it isn't normal, you have something wrong with you and live in the contorted, contrived closed society of SL -- or maybe in China.

[19:41] : Fluffy Arrigula:  I bought down half the sims I had that were not already grandfathered. My plan was to do the rest a few at a time until they were all bought down 

[20:10] Prokofy Neva: well that's great, but I'm finding it hard that you used Lindens you had inworld to buy 45 x $600 sims down, that would be $27,000 US and require you to have 72,972,972 Lindens inworld -- that you just hoarded because you didn't use Lindens to pay tier. it's not credible.

Note: we don't know how many out of her empire of 90 were grandfathered to start and she's not telling us. I'd guess probably not a lot as she was born literally a month before the Linden grandfathered sims were made available, and I don't think it was likely she bought 90 or 50 all in one swoop as a month-old newbie (I could be wrong), that she doesn't have that many previously grandfathered.

Let's remember a forgotten fact of that day you can see in my comments on the Herald -- set-up fees were way more. Today, they are $600. Back then, they were $1000 for a private island, and $1250 or even more, like $1500, to win a Mainland sim at auction (I paid $1501 for Ravenglass at the time, in 2004.)

They increased the cost of islands from $995 in the old days to $1250 in June 2005 or so, when they also moved to an auction where only whole sims would be supplied fresh at bids opening at $1000, and only used, recycled abandoned part sims would be provided occasionally. So both island and mainland costs went up substantially ($1200-1500 for wholesale sim auction on the mainland), and the Lindens glutted, and that affected the dollar/Linden value. This is all amply recorded in news and blogs throughout this period.

So it's not just the $195 tier, it's the set-up fee which at that time was nearly double and not trivial.

[20:16] Fluffy Arrigula: I dunno if my hypothesis is correct any more than anyone else knows if theirs are correct. Though it seems that a lot of people seem to be misinformed about how the Linden Exchange works. It isn't some elaborate IOU system lol. And the Lindens claim they dont meddle. I was in a chat with them today telling them I was not going to buy down another sim unless they "did something" which was just useless venting but I needed to vent. The Linden spent 10 minutes typing and then finally came up with a short: "Every market has its ups and downs, we don't meddle, we have to let everything run its course naturally." I don't know what is going on, but it seems obvious to me that basically a lot more lindens than usual went on the exchange this month. And the demand was there to buy them. 

Um, these Lindens are talking out of their asses. This is NOT repeat NOT some "fluctuation" of a "market" because it's not a "market" really. The Lindens have kept it stabilized at the same rate like the Bank of Russia for years and years. It's not normal, not a natural cycle or anything of the kind. Their own record of keeping the limited by cashout top within the range of 248-249 for years and years lets us know that.

[20:17] Prokofy Neva: Fluffy, I've been in SL for 12 years so I understand how the LindEx works and I have talked extensively in the past with its original coder.

[20:18] Hottie Something: Was *not.

(She concedes there was no demand. Yeah, I'll say).

[20:18] Prokofy Neva: Once again, your theory that this is all about buy downs is only correct if you yourself took 72 million Lindens you just happened to have in world and all at once, cashed them out to get the money you needed to buy 45 x $600 sim buydowns. Now, I'm not finding that credible.

[20:18] Prokofy Neva: Why? Because you say you have 90 sims, and you might indeed have changed 45, but you would not use 72 million Lindens inworld do pay for this cost, but a regular bank card with less costly money.

[20:18] Prokofy Neva: unless I'm missing something

[20:19] Prokofy Neva: The Lindens print and sell money through Supply Linden. They explained this in the past. The question is whether they *cease doing this* at times like this or whether they even buy Lindens. We don't know. I don't think a Linden in support would know either.

[20:22] Fluffy Arrigula:  And people spent only a single day holding out for the old price while that was happening and then just went into free fall. That tells me that at least a few people were willing to take less $ for their L. Probably people who bought down. Maybe creators who don't have a whole estate. Just one sim. They are saving $100 this month on tier, maybe they can afford to take a bit of a loss on the Lindex and then boom. WW3 :D 

This theory that saving $100 a month on tier -- when the rentals market may get softer as a number of people do the same thing! -- is also theoretical and not factual. Maybe they did, maybe they didn't.  But, you know, they'd have to first PAY $600, Fluffy, then "save $100". So, that's not really saving $100? That's...spending $500 LOL. 

[20:23] Prokofy Neva: Once again Fluffy you are not confirming or denying a simple thing I'm asking: did you or did you not use your Linden dollars inworld for this buydown? Because your theory is claiming that, yet yourself couldn't possibly have had 72 million dollars inworld in Lindens such as to spend to pay off $600 x 45, makes no rational sense

[20:26] Hottie Something: But it's all just speculation. You can't ignore the possibility that the Linden $ and the value of land could be linked. I would be curious to know if the last huge drop in the Lindex coincided with the price changes and GF changes last time LL meddled with the economy. 

[20:26] Prokofy Neva: Fluffy, can you answer a straight question?

[20:27] Prokofy Neva: no it did not, the last grandfathering was something that in fact I forced LL to provide to the public, they weren't going to, by blowing the lid off the fact that they were only letting inside friends get the deal, this was years ago and did NOT affect the LindEx like THIs

[20:29] Hottie Something: What?? I never claimed to have 45 sims. And wtf?? Why are you attacking me. Jesus Christ. I made one fucking post on one fucking blog. What is wrong with you that you would purposefully seek me out just to spew your combative bullshit at me for having an opinion. Why don't you grow up or get a life. What did I ever do to you. Jackass.

Er, this person write right on her profile that she runs an island business with 90 sims. So, half of that is 45, you know? She also says on her real life pages that she makes at least a modest living from SL and once made so much she could buy a fancy car. So spare us the drama and bullshit. Do people FORGET what they write on their profile?

[20:29] Prokofy Neva: Um, I'm not attacking you. Are you reading what I am writing you? I'm asking you a simple question to try to determine if your theory is correct. Did you or did you not yourself buy the buydown with your 72 million or any amount of Lindens inworld, or did you just use a regular credit/debit card which seems more rational

[20:30] Prokofy Neva: I'm finding it hard why you can't answer this straight ordinary question I've asked 4 times now

[20:30] Prokofy Neva: Hardly a jackass for asking a straight ordinary question to see whether your theory is one that you yourself in fact tested!

So, hmm, the 90 sims on the profile could be old information never updated, or the person is just not using logic and common sense. Or maybe they didn't really make a buydown of 45 x $600 with half of their sims despite saying they had done that, but only bought some, slowly over time?

In any event, I still don't have the basic information here: did Ms. Fluffy use Linden dollars hoarded in world to make her buydown to turn her $295 sims to $195 sims, or did she use a regular credit or debit card? Because she'd need A LOT of Lindens, given that AS she is doing this buy down, HELLO she still needs to pay TIER! Tier was $13,275 a month for this fabulous personage (!) but now it will be $8775. That's a savings of $4500. Who wouldn't want to make that move? The problem of course is that you need to spend $27,000 on the way to getting there, or $600 per sim, and that means it will be six months of having saved $100 over your old tier before you see the value of this -- assuming you can keep your rentals full! That's the worst feature of this! In six months, there may be no rentals customers!

And it's more than fine to say that, as it is common sense, logic and seasoned experience of those in the Metaverse the last 17 years like me, who know that worlds and games come and go, they break your heart and take your content, and you lose money and your home. The end. Don't like it? Get another hobby.

But Ms. Fluffy, and other girls like her in SL who have these sort of mid-size island empires are counting on the fact that their "loyal customers" will still be with them.

BTW, we don't know if her "90 islands" are all homesteads or part homesteads which would make the cash layout significantly different but they appear to be full prim islands".

Fluffy, though she simply wouldn't grasp that I was trying to determine whether someone with a 100 island empire had 72 million Lindens inworld (when they had to pay tier! every month!), was still, despite her claims thinking the GF offer was the only factor.

I don't either.

Let's look at some other data points.

2) A friend documented that Anshe Chung or the Chunglets or whoever these people are with the Chung name, were RAISING their prices by $400 on their homesteads. That's funny, raise your price when YOU just get a break with $100 less tier to pay? Oh, but No. 1 Business Girl is smart, and is trying to recoup her COSTS because she knows these ARE costs and not benefits until way down the line. So if she can wrest another $400 especially from new tenants flush with cheap cash or even oldbies who now have more to spend, they won't notice the price hike.

So....if there are rental price hikes, that should soak up Lindens and keep demand higher.

But that's not happening.

Anshe Chung has a big enough empire that she could move markets with a decision like that but I dunno, not happening.

3) I talked to a major land dealer who was worried, seemed to have no more information than me or anyone else, didn't think it was the GF sim buydown and thought it was people going out of business or cashing out or speculating or all three. He made the point that if Lindens can land-glut -- which we've seen them do many a time in their hey-day because THEY needed cash and they couldn't care about what it did to the inworld economy -- then they could print Lindens to drive the price down now.

Why would they do that?

Concern that the Lindens is too expensive for new people? But this worked for years, and retention is not related to the LindEx rates.

It would be a big stretch to claim this microphenomenon related to the macrophenomenon of the viewer being too hard, people not having enough to do, etc.

Somehow -- and other people agree -- I don't the Lindens are "doing this" by printing money. And as I keep having to explain, they don't earn money this way (unless something has changed).

But they ARE worsening it and might as WELL be "doing this" if they adopt this ridiculous attitude that this is a "natural fluctuation".

They ARE worsening it if they know full well that it is tied to the Sansar beta and pretend this is just FUD.

And if their buydown plan, which was designed to help their bottom line and stop the draw-down of islands in the population, in fact only crashes the LindEx, then it's kind of damaging.

I still don't know if the influx of cheaper island rentals will gut out the Mainland, especially in combination with cheaper Lindens. That might be the case!

But I see the island rentals agents still offering these ridiculous low prices and some so low that don't meet their costs. They are doing that to get customers -- any customers.

If they are raising prices like the Chungs, I don't see them doing that.

So let me repeat what the request is to the Lindens:

1) Tell us whether Supply Linden still prints and sells Lindens and whether he has been halted.

2) Tell us what happened to the "circuit breaker" idea.

3) Tell us what THEY know about the buy-down. How many bought the deal? Of these, how many paid with inworld Linden dollars (!!!!) This is basic economic information.

4) If it is NOT the buy-down, what is it? THEY need to tell us as only THEY know whether it's about the gambling/"legal games" stall, the beta, or what.

And let me repeat what the request is to top merchants:

1) YOU need to put it to the Lindens that they need to answer. Do this collectively and publicly

2 YOU need to make your 50-pull prize transferable at the Arcade and bring down prices. I don't care how cheap Linden dollars are for "the masses," $85 and $100 gatchas are far, far from the spirit of gatcha when it began.

 

Why I Advocate STOP SHOPPING and BOYCOTT ARCADE

Photo by CBS

STOP SHOPPING, BOYCOTT ARCADE -- this is the call I have to people in business in Second Life to respond to the crash of the LindEx.

Of course, I've told my customers in fact that they should buy Lindens as they've never been cheaper (and they haven't, and those invoking past rates are both wrong and invoking this history for all the wrong reasons). So in fact I've encouraged them to shop and of course pay their rent. I'm hardly going to stop hundreds of those customers from doing what they want, which is to have fun and shop at Arcade when it opens next month.

But as a person in business who has to cash out Lindens to pay tier and real-life bills, I'm going to take dramatic action because that's what you need to do in the fetid, closed society of SL.

This is a situation that does not get better due to the lack of free speech on the forums, the hordes of horrid fanboyz and fangirlz who discourage democratic debate there, and the punitive atmosphere from "regulars" and the mods. Sluniverse is a similar closed and cliquish society that bans critics -- I myself was banned for confronting the support for Woodbury University griefers that cost businesses and communities money and people which was wrong -- I was hardly the only victim. They thought it was edgy and cool to support hackers and griefers -- I don't.

The forums and Sluniverse have filled up with lies, denials and disinformation from alts. 

Phil Deakins is getting far more visibility than his inworld knowledge and business would merit - that's how it works. I hadn't visited his shop in years -- I was utterly shocked to discover how crappy it is (see photos at the end of this post). The decorations look like they're from 2007 -- crappy textures worse even than I would make. It's like that awful forums character Jetaime -- utterly outdated build, no presence inworld. His traffic now that bots can't help him is 1886. His parcel size is 4996 -- even if he has more elsewhere, this is a person who simply doesn't get it about paying a tier bill. Next.

I'm glad to see that toast bard, not a person I find attractive who has viciously attacked me in the past (she once suggested that I sew a corpse's penis on to myself), is at least speaking up with the truth about this phenomenon on plurk. I've seen her in business since 2004; she now has the company named tres blah. I'm not a particular fan of her stuff but occasionally will get a gatcha or yard sale item. The point is, though she stands to BENEFIT actually from easy and low-cost cash, she gets it when she experiences the BITE when cashing out money for real life, and possibly tier (they are all on a sim called Tableau, and somebody has to pay the $195 or $295 a month on that sim of course).

Through her old FIC connections, toast got the influential Shamlet, as I have always called him -- another closed society who bans me unless I use my RL name (!) although that requirement isn't made for anyone else) to even publicize the topic and put in a query to Linden. Well, that's something.

But we see the same lies and deza as the Russians call it (disinformation) as elsewhere in the column and the comments.

That column was posted May 20 when 21 million Lindens were waiting to get out the door; then it was 358 last night. So please. Let's not pretend there isn't a problem.

So let's go through it.

The main piece of dez that I see is claiming that this crash isn't a crash, isn't the lowest it has ever been, is a normal fluctation, and doesn't mean anything. This is total bullshit.

Yes, technically the LindEx has been lower in its history. But that figure which no one cites a source for, but I can find you here in 2006 and 2007 news articles respectively is for the INSTANT cash out. The garden-variety cashout. That's what those sites tell you and that's what most people remember as they are casual users. The instant cashout is what is available when you simply go to the LindEx and ask to buy money. It gives you the "best buy" rate for "instant". Not enough people realize that if they were to be patient enough even to wait an hour let alone a day, they could get a better rate with the "limited buy" function where you chose a rate that seems like it may move quickly, as there are not a lot of offers stacked up there, and park your request there as a buy.

So sure, someone can easily prove me wrong in my claim that the LindEx has "never been lower" by citing the instant cashout figure.

The problem is that I'm talking about the limited buy figure which is when you park your Lindens to be sold at a figure you select, waiting a day or 7 days or 30 days for it to cash out. THAT figure can be 10 points or more different than the instant buy.

I have been keeping records of the LindEx for years because I write newsletters. So I can find my own newsletters going back to 2009 and 2007 showing even a 250 limited buy cashout. And maybe someone will come up with documented proof of an even higher (lower in value) figure. 

So what? That's not the point, because there are two OTHER points to be made now that we've surged past 250 to 263 today!

1. The use of this claimed historical "low" is being deployed to make a point that we "have nothing to worry about". That's utter bullshit. Of course we do. Because...
2. The historical lows did not crash SO QUICKLY, i.e. a 10 or more point spread within a day. I can only think of one other time when the land auction crashed quickly when Ryan Linden got the bright idea of having uniform bids suddenly. That completely hollowed out/leveled the established inworld customs of valuation of telehub land, snow, waterfront, etc. and then crashed the value. That in turn affected the LindEx -- but more slowly. I know I had blogs about this at the time which I'll dig up.

Yes, the LindEx had its times of crisis, notably when the Lindens killed the GOM (an entire watershed in SL); when the Lindens killed off SL banks and stock markets (that was a good thing, but bad actors like Benjamin Duranske role-playing wannabee DA characters artificially worsened it by causing a run on the banks). The Alphaville Herald, which is libertarian and leftist and even communist when it wants to suddenly got all regulatory about this and wanted "LL to intervene." I pointed out -- as I do about campus rapes -- does that concentrate the mind wonderfully, Urizenus? -- that real-life authorities, real cops and not campus henchmen or virtual world coders -- should administer justice. That's all. Not a start-up of open source hackers and a bunch of anonymous friends of theirs online.

There've been other challenges, whether the "telehub land buyback" or the imposition of the VAT or whatever. But let me note that those crises were NOTHING LIKE what is happening now because they didn't happen WITHIN A MATTER OF DAYS, but over time.

MORE IMPORTANTLY, they happened with Linden Lab explaining its policy, making announcements of its policy, even having inworld meetings about its policy.

None of that is happening now. That's why these horrid fanboyz who think others are panic-mongers or others are ignorant or insane are just plain wrong-headed and in fact devious if they are doing this at the behest of, or with the knowledge of the Lab.

Those who keep invoking "historical lows" and "historical fluctuations" are completely wrong about context and even facts. None of these past lows occurred as precipitously and with such thunderous Linden silence. So stop peddling the fanboyz bullshit.

The thread on Plurk, which is the main hangout for Second Life people who don't like Sluniverse (and even those who do) has a much more realistic discussion on this subject.

My demands to this group as you can see are several:

1) They need to get on Sluniverse, New World Notes and the regular SL forums and fight their fellow assholes who think there isn't a problem. They can do that much. I say "fellow assholes" because so many on plurk ARE the sort of creator-fascists who have been causing oppressiveness and assholery on the forums for years, and are the privileged set going to Sansar poised to take advantage of the early knowledge of the market that none of us have. These people continuously advocate policies to benefit their class, most of which not only don't benefit others but actually harm them.

2) They need to go to the Lindens, publicly, privately, individually, collectively and ask two things:

1) Is Supply Linden doing this? Is Supply Linden selling lots of cash now? Why? Can he stop?

2) Where are the circuit breakers? Lindens have told us there are circuit breakers in the past that stop massive cashouts and keep the rate even. What, are they broken?

For those of you reading (and writing barking bullshit on forums) who think the Lindens get rich from the LindEx or doing something like this, think again. If there are any of you who actually think there is no Supply Linden or we don't know that, think again as well. The coder of the LindEx has openly told us about the existence of Supply Linden and CNN even covered it back in the day.

The Lindens used to explain a lot about how this machine worked. And to any even casual student of this machine, it is instantly clear that the staff salary and benefits to manage this thing probably mean it breaks even or even loses money. The amounts it throws off in fees just aren't that huge, given LL's cost for the thing itself and their other costs. That's a shame given that currency for the Metaverse is one theory of how Lindens can "break" their "dependency" on land (something I do not think they should do, unlike Shamlet who has agitated for it for years out of open source communist nonsense and theories that combine socialism and libertarianism (as so many SL-things do) about how economies should be run -- for platform providers of course, not users, which he really doesn't care about).

I really can't see the Lindens behind this cash dump, although the question has to be asked especially because no. 2 seems to have an answer "we aren't applying circuit breakers".

Maybe they can't because the amount is very high and they have to siphon it off and hope they can do so but then they need to be straightforward about what their policy is.

Maybe they will invoke "privacy" as to why they can't tell us that Anshe Chung, their number one frenemy, or Adam Zaius, their golden son, are cashing out from these laggy shores for good.

People who make the claim of Linden enrichment don't understand the system to start with -- it has "sinks" -- $10 texture fees, Linden-denominated land auctions, purchases on the LindEx that are sinks or "burning" of dollars, i.e. they are not converted at some internal rate by the company into dollars.

As far as we know. But we don't know for sure. Given that the Lindens charge a fee for sales on the Marketplace, and the long-term plan for Metaversal solvency is -- again -- to break away from land and generate fees for services like LindEx and marketplace infrastructure (which hardly pay costs now!), maybe there is some formula there. I just don't know. I don't think so, but let's hear it from them. I asked Ebbe directly on Twitter and got nothing, but I wouldn't expect to.

The only way Lindens have to make hard real-life cash is from tier (land) which I don't think they should abandon (and they claim they won't but are attracted to the long-term prospect just like Shamlet is), from rentals of sims for special events, from fees for cashing out Lindens from SL's servers and possibly some special content sales (they used to sell necklaces for real money).  But again, let's hear it from them. DO they have a formula for the fees only to convert to cash?

Oh, and do they make interest off the float? I believe they must. I was told by the Linden VP in charge of this some years that they didn't (ie to administer and collect it was too hard). But many people have dollar floats on their account as buffers or as cashouts waiting a day or two or seven for tier and they may make use of this in some way.

Another debunking that is required is that people who point out the obvious facts of Sansar as a reason are "scare-mongering" truly need to stuff it -- like this German site that linked to my blog. Sansar is likely a large part of what is driving this, as time-wise, we see this worrisome activity right before the expansion of the beta in June. And that's because any pragmatic, grounded, sane person -- not a fluttery FUDnik as the geeks claim - knows that if there are more people in the beta, there are more people invested in the project who will then want it to succeed and will move to it -- which means the gutting of the existing SL. Every little FIC LL fan who has been let in the beta will have every reason to spin it as positive and put their marbles in that basket to justify their invitation and their very existence. They aren't stupid. So don't let them get away with implying we are.

The reality is, everyone who has been in TSO or There knows, when a new shiny comes, worlds empty out. They close. This may not be instant, it may take years, there are backwashes as I've explained, but new technology, better shinies empty out old worlds. Sure, there are lots of reasons why SL as we know it may survive -- for one, it's the Lindens' cash cow as tier generates their profits every year and cover their costs. It will be awhile before Sansar can do that.

But if Sansar is less laggy, prettier, able to hold more people on a sim, more interesting and gripping, it will attract people and content creators will create for that world and landlords will rent out for that world and so on, and SL will empty out. To say that this won't happen because new words have problems with software bugs is silly -- so what? So did SL, which used to be as crappy as the day is long, but everybody understood instantly that it was better than TSO because you could walk off your land (!), fly around and explore wonderful areas and buy and sell in it freely and not be banned from "the game". I personally don't think a world that induces spectator status without the ability to edit even as an amateur -- as Sansar does -- will work, but who knows, it might. Most people want to be given content to consume and hate having to work to generate it.

M Linden's theory that the "killer app" was "each other" -- that the prospect of close and especially sexual relationships but not only sexual relationships would keep the world vibrant -- is true as far as it goes, but it's not enough because it is still too hard for people to find each other and they still don't have enough to do. Sansar may fix that.

So let me tell you my own policy now with regard to this situation. 

I am boycotting Arcade for a number of reasons:

1. They visibly and obviously stand to benefit the most from cheap cash especially as they are now deliberately marketing 50 pulls, twice or more than twice the amount as the last few fairs run by other groups (that had 20 or 25), i.e. they will be deliberately siphoning cash from the rubes. So I need those organizers to make a statement about the LindEx and to use their clout as huge businesses who will make hundreds of thousands of REAL dollars from Arcade to get the Lindens to talk, explain their policies, and stabilize the currency. 
2. They are offering a prize after 50 pulls that is NON-TRANSFER. This alone should cause boycotts and consumer slowdowns for sure and I only encourage them. That item MUST be put on transfer and become available to the after-market. The organizers at other events tried this gambit, I and others objected, they changed it. Arcade MUST do this. It will do it if they hear from consumers.
3. Gatchas are getting too expensive and merchants are getting too greedy. The price has crept up from the $25 it was originally years ago to $50 to $75  and $85 and now even $100. We have to put our foot down and boycott or they will keep bilking us. There is no objective increase in cost that these people experienced such as to justify this gouge. It's just getting what they can from addicts, and that is shameful. Yes, free markets mean people can charge what they want, and God bless them. But consumers can also not buy and stop pulling $85 gatchas. If people won't boycott Arcade fully, they could do this much: stop pulling the lever on $80 and $85 gatchas. It's not worth it. You don't get better content from those charging more.

I realize I will probably have little company with this exercise, and people will say I am only harming my fellow merchants. But there's a big gap between me and them. I don't make hundreds of thousands of real-life dollars; they do. So they need to act to help all of us by appealing to the Lindens about the LindEx; they need to change their no-transfer policy and we need at least some of them to come down in price as a gesture of good will.

Here's the link to join the group inworld.

I'm seeing way more anger at gatcha than I used to. I see people getting in groups and urging others to boycott the new $80 and $85 gatchas - we thought $75 was a gouge. They get expelled. They are right to protest. 

I see people really angry when they don't get the rares -- they try 33 or 66 or 99 times, it's incredible. I never pull a gatcha more than 20 if there is no prize, and most time, I limit to 3 times or what I think a reasonable price for a rare would be, i.e. if a rare is $750, then I might try 10 times for a $75 gatcha.

But many people try so many times for another reason: they are in the rares gambling business. Rare selling is basically gambling -- all of gatcha is, but the effort to get a rare to sell is the obvious gambling tip of this iceberg. People want to get in first to get the rares and sell them while they are hot and hopefully either make a profit or at least cover their gatcha habit.

I'm starting a group for this boycott, and months ago in fact, I started building a site called Shaman's Hut that is devoted to helping people shop smart on gatcha and also overcome addictive and destructive behavior. I hope to open soon.

My boycott is only limited to Arcade now but in fact I have STOPPED SHOPPING completely everywhere over the LindEx. I may come to the yardsales later and buy these items at half price. I'm certainly not going to come to Seraphim's yardsale where they are FORCING people to sell ONLY at pull price. People will flock to it just because it will have traffic and advertising. But people should boycott that form of creator-fascism as well.

I'm not even going to create things and upload $10 textures. It's a total buying fast in which my Lindens on account are for refunds only, or for changing some texture at a customer's request.

 

My Response to the Drop in the Linden Dollar Value is To Stop Shopping or Buying Land

That's the only rational thing for people in business to be doing right
now.

Meanwhile, consumers can enjoy the cheapest Linden dollar ever and they
should be encouraged to soak up the excess of a million or more US dollars
trying to leave SL.

I won't be going to The Arcade because not only do I already boycott some
of their top promoters like Cory Edo, for her sheer assholery on the forums
and Sluniverse for years, they are more and more letting $75 and $85 and
even $100 gatchas creep in. That's wrong and greedy. Of course you can do
what you want under capitalism, God Bless it. I can do, which is wait to
buy these half price in the after-market : )

It's especially wrong for them to have an offer of a special prize for 50 pulls -

30 more than the price for such pulls instituted at other events -- AND to make

that item NON-transferable so it can't be sold. That's just plain wrong and contrary

to the whole spirit of gatcha.

Curtains by Bee Designs, a whole bedroom set for just $100

https://marketplace.secondlife.com/p/what-next-Morning-Tea-Bedroom-

Collection/2988843

Dozens of items, all great

Added a candle, curtains, yes, makes a difference

OK, took out M. Law (couldn't get it animated right), added curtains, light. Better?

Check this out!

Did Your Mother Ever Tell You, Never Mix Vintage and Boho?

So I put together some things from various events recently.

Perhaps your mother told you never to mix a print with a plaid, and never put Vintage with Boho. And she may have cautioned, "And never put M. Law stuff out of a gatcha with ANYTHING." M.Law is the second half off Bee Designs, sort of middle-to-low-brow nautical-but-nice stuff. I love their furnished Tiki. No one EVER rents it. Why? It has so many cool things and features! I like some of their stuff because I am not high-brow myself. I love looking at Love to Design but I usually run screaming from its fussiness and pretentiousness after 20 minutes. In fact, I was induced to buy the cream rabbit version of the DavidHeath rabbit lamp --- doesn't it say it all that I had the pink and not the cream? I was going to put it in the Flamingo somewhere. I would have normally avoided rabbit lamps, you know? But then after I saw it in LTD I went and got it at a yard sale. Or maybe it was on the MP actually. Now what? Stay tuned...

So...This blanket and pillow thing from M.Law sort of Arizona or boho out of a gatcha at Shiny Shabby was it? It doesn't even have poses in it. I may have to stick some in. But I just put it there because I don't know, it pulls things together. But I could take it out if you insist.

There's Kalopsia's latest boho couch from an event; above is a framed print by tarte. Then a little vintage chair  - OTB Lotus Chair - from the Courage Event to help victims of the Alberta Fire so please go there and buy stuff. And then this other little dresser with the vintage look by Eifee; on top is the hatbox rare from a gatcha by Strike It and the hat box from some other gatcha by Bee Designs.

I realize they don't go together, but I don't care, it's Second Life.

Some things I might change, though.

I'm not big on Vintage really. In fact, for someone who usually avoids vintage roses as too kitschy, I seem to have AN AWFUL LOT of it in inventory from succumbing to $30 Linden sales.

I like Kalopsia's Janey bench, but I shortened it. I also put some things on to the already-busy hutch by unKindness, why not? There's the candle and roses from Silvery K's wedding gatcha set and an old music box I had. Lacrime dell'anima's roses in the wheelbarrow thing is supposed to go outside, but who cares? You can't appreciate it when it's outside. Next to it is llorisen's table -- yes, that's a table with texture change. On top is a tea tray by Sickly Sweet. Then the little set of drawers by Eiffee. On top is a Book Lamp by Eiffee. Above is a set of frames with old-fashioned ice cream parlour stuff - [KO SHIIT] Vintage Icecream Frames. Then there's rose bucket by Culprit on unKindness' Old Plant Stand. 

The mannekin is from Circa from a gatcha. I thought of using Soy's coral mannikin from the gatcha. It's also a possibility. But it's a little too modern looking.

For me, this rug was a real find because it's not overbearing as so many vintage rose rug things are (and I have one other I guess which didn't quite work). Only $100 on the MP.

 

 

 

This isn't rented yet so you can see it in Grote.

 

It really swings, you can test it! magic garden swing by Astralia

Just $220