By Prokofy Neva, Virtualtor
I'm now going to double up long posts because the Lindens (or rather Moles who have been assigned to the chore of the forums) have gotten into the habit of deleting and disappearing entire posts; individual posts; and of course closure of posts is now routine.
You wouldn't think there would be anything that would cause this post to be closed, but just watch, someone will find it insults the Lindens or insults them and their fabulous business and AR it.
So usually this topic incites some people to come on who aren't even in business to say something to the effect that "I'm just here to have fun" or "isn't capitalism terrible, land barons are exploiters and tier is too damn high" -- or another aria, actually from the same opera, which is, "Why, my business is doing fine, there must be something wrong with you." These reactions you can summarize as "No Business" or "No Business But My Business." So those people say what they always say, but there are many more who understand the economy is in trouble, and wonder if/how/when it can be fixed, and how it got this way.
Gatchapocalypse
And the answer is, in short, after you blame COVID -- which was supposed to help the Internet and virtual worlds? -- the gatcha ban 9/1/21 which had a reverberating effect all across the economy -- and continues to have one. It's not about whether or not a given merchant made or didn't make or sell gatchas; it's about the resale economy, and the hordes of people who bought and resold them, and thus believed -- or actually had -- disposable funds to buy more stuff, not-gatcha. So there was the predictable response there, with some wildly applauding the Linden decision (which was not prompted by any real-world action by any law enforcement that one would actually point to in the US, as distinct from a "climate" that was supposedly going to be imported from Japan, etc. Others were silenced when the forums amen corner grew completely shrill and nasty and would acknowledge privately that either they liked gatchas because they provided them with cheap and constantly variable content -- or else helped them wrest a living from this virtual boat on the sea of the Internet.
So fast forward to Christmas, and here we all are, and I'll tell you what my indicators are for when I see the economy is in trouble, and you can dispute them, or tell me yours, or gloat, or do what you're going to do. This topic can be almost impossible for some people to accept or admit -- because their Linden overlords don't admit it. At the very same Linden office hour where the search "facelift" was announced (which later drew tremendous criticisms on the forums), a resident complained that his sales were down, even though Halloween was approaching. And a Linden said basically, I'm sorry you are having that experience, but our indicators show the economy is doing well.
Whereupon I always wonder not "what is this Linden smoking" but "what are his indicators that can cause him to say a thing like that." I'm going to assume that he doesn't mean "Linden Lab's economy," which is a separate entity that may or may not be linked to inworld economic concerns; the Lindens can keep selling more premium accounts and Bellisserian houses; they can keep selling more islands; they can tax content on the Marketplace and the LindEx, and all manner of things seem well -- but many people in the *inworld* economy could be hurting. That is, maybe makers of add-ons for Bellisserian homes, or makers of sailboats, or makers of mesh heads aren't hurting -- but others are.
And even I can say, "Oh, I'm run off my feet this time of year with move-ins." There are a lot of people going to snow, or getting second little places, or larger places so they can go all out decorating, and that's fine, but even so, I think business is down for a lot of us, and here's why:
Smaller Rentals and No Bots for Liquidation
o Churn -- there may be more rentals, but they don't last, or people move around, or they move into Bellisseria and then back out, some using their tier then to contribute to the group. Overall, I think the rentals are trending smaller, so I make smaller ones. If all the largest ones are filled up, my instinct is not to make or buy more large parcels because it's an incredible risk -- I am still recovering from taking that risk last year for a customer who reneged.
o Long-time tier contributors or regular tenants disappear -- it's odd when someone goes to the trouble to put tier in the group, set up a home and store, socialize, check in often -- suddenly to disappear. That means they got COVID, or care for people who have COVID, or lost their job, or whatever. Rarely it's about some happy event in RL that took them deeper into RL happiness like a marriage or a new, better job, but surely that must happen, too.
o People ask more for discounts or specials or forbearances, even though I give a lot of them already, so I have to say "no," as LL doesn't give us a discount beyond the standard 10% group bonus and lower tiers above one sim. This magical "bulk discount" that people often reference is elusive, at least for me at my level, which sure isn't "bulk."
o Certain prime waterfronts that stay continually rented don't rent as quickly.
o Regulars who rent for long periods or move around a lot are still in SL but leaving their rentals, and not for Bellisseria. They are just homeless and not logging in.
o Land put to sale even at low prices just never sells - even $3/m for mature waterfront or $1/m for roadside. I'm not in the land selling business, but I occasionally sell land that doesn't rent, or land on sims that have gone south. I noticed that bots NEVER come. I could put a parcel that is adequate but not prime waterfront at 0.2/m -- no bots will come. Then certain notorious land barons might come *in person* at 0.1/m just to stay at the top of the list.
So those are my own anecdotal experiences but let me cite the anecdotal points I see more broadly:
Land Abandons, Price Dumping, Barons Out of Business
o Land barons who used to extort you to buy a small parcel by your land -- especially if you already bought a cheap one from them -- are offering it for a normal price. Not even first extorting, then lowering, but starting off with "normal".
o On the other hand, there are more frantic land cutting waves and dumping of land at 0.2/m with attempts at sales, and then abandonments, and even disappearance of the alts that made these attempts.
o Of course there are certain failures by some land barons who have disappeared, whether due to RL illness/death or SL land market tanking, not clear. But they're gone, and their alts struggle. Everything that has happened to certain themed communities isn't just because of their owners' questionable practices, or failure to compete with Bellisseria, but because of the overall climate of consumer reticence. Of course certain Linden polices or lack of enforcement of rules don't help.
o The price of land is always important to follow to try to understand the economy, and it, too, was affected by gatcha sales -- and some of the people who were in gatcha re-sales have also been in the land business and they have folded one or the other or both. If you see Blake Sea land for $75/m or your neighbour is putting their insignificant rocky waterfront in G at some fantastic sum "hoping someone will click and buy", don't let that obscure for you what else is happening, which is reduction of even prime waterfront prices.
o Auctions go without bids, or they are won for $1/m -- entire sims are bought, and dumped, and re-auctioned again by the Lindens within months. I have seen a number of these. Someone could argue it's not a trend, but we are in a black box with no history, unless someone tries to keep it manually -- you can't see past auctions beyond a certain date, you can't see who won the bid unless you race inworld and catch it, and it may be flipped among alts and barons a number of times before it is sold -- or abandoned again. Even so, for some I have watched, that's what I have noticed.
If you are saying "oh, that's good if those !#@@#$ land barons are out of business,: think again. They are there to tier your view until you are ready to buy it; they are there to buy your land in the middle of the night when you dump it as tier approaches. They perform a service, and a hard one, even though the moral level of quite a few of them is low and their practices sharp.
Bellisseria
o Bellisseria is supposed to be the green, growing tip of SL. Is it? I see hundreds of houses put out and not yet rented, the Lindens didn't release them into the system. I abandon a house, and it's still there a week or more later, even though it was a pretty good location. The recent tsunami of protest over the new style reveal at the Christmas Expo was really surprising, and a key sign of stress of both residents and Lindens, whichc is a major signal of economic disruption, in my view. In part it's just the "rising tide of expectations" and the tendency of all game players to burn through their game gods' content.
But usually the Bellisserians are the "aggressively obedient majority" of the forums, anyway, which isn't saying much, as forums represent 2-10% of the user base here and in many other venues. There's a lot of unhappiness that isn't just about the kind of moulding on the stairways. Residents accusing Lindens of "not being present" and Lindens apologizing because they have so much to do -- that doesn't track for me, because the Lindens are more present than ever. An explicit statement that the forums aren't the only place for Lindens to get feedback is also telling. I think Belli has succeeded because a core group of people got multiple homes -- and I'm one of them, with 7 -- but there are people with 50. And they naturally get tired of the sameness and are in the "I feel stupid and contagious/here we are now/entertain us" mode of so much of modern life -- and now literally, with COVID and everyone forced on the Internet more.
o We have to assume there are "more premiums" and Bellisseria is growing -- because it's growing on the map. But is it, really? We don't know as the figures are not posted. And why would the BBB have to be encouraged and become hybrid with Moles/Lindens with a program even of ambassadors to the Mainland to get people to buy premium and move into Bellisseria -- if everything is so great? It's one of the oddest things I've seen in SL, really. I hope the Lindens pragmatically measure the click-throughs. I think they will be negligible.
Creators and Merchant Events
o Creators began announcing their Black Friday sales WAY ahead of actual Black Friday; they had not just 25% off but 50% and even 60%; they kept hammering on their lists past Cyber Monday and Giving Tuesday and are STILL going -- and here it is Advent already. I have never seen so many "Black Friday" sales in my virtual life, and very far from America's shores.
o The lack of advent calendars from some merchants, and the absent or late announcements of their "giving trees" are signs of economic distress for some.
o There are more 30-60L sales on the weekend than ever before, and it's become totally insane. Many remark that it is impossible to get anyone to buy anything for a "normal" price any more. Gatchas and their low prices and numerous plays displayed regular stores and the MP; that engendered all the weekend sales to complete; even with the end of gatchas there is still a proliferation of weekend sales -- and any day sales, for any reason.
o You can now easily TP into the main sim of most major events -- they put on cam sims they don't even use. it seems some events really don't need them beyond a day, and not even that, and can't justify them, but get them just to "hold up the honour of the uniform."
o A strange thing I've noticed lately when I can't find something and try to get a manager -- all the 6 or even 10 managers are showing offline in the group. Maybe they hide themselves but they also don't answer IMs. Nor do the merchants. It's like they have given up.
o If you were here last fall complaining that people created gatchas to force sales because their stuff wasn't good enough, you never actually looked at the amazing content that people *did* create in this form. And go on creating -- but can't sell. I personally have completely stopped going to some of the sales and buy less because I can't justify the expenditures.
o Halloween is the real "Black Friday" -- and I'm not sure how it did. I think not so well for too many people.
o Part of the general problem of virtual worlds is that while content becomes obsolete, you also, as an individual user, don't see the need for new content and can put out last year's Christmas decorations because they are still serviceable. Put out some from five years ago and nobody will have remembered them; add gatcha rares that are in retirement and really wow your fans lol. But you really don't need any more Christmas stuff, do you?
o I was hoping plazas and malls would make a comeback -- more people would want to sell gatchas or anything to make a living (i.e. to have money to buy more clothes and accessories). It seem some people started malls that didn't have them before and I persist with mine that stay fairly full. But if I pull out the list of all the Ravenglass merchants featured in Christmas mailings of 10 years ago, 5 years ago, and today, there are far less, and I have closed some malls, because the Marketplace and events replaced them. But I also see some events that died and never came back.
o We no long have those wonderful charts and graphs that showed how much people spent inworld, from $1L at the lowest and widest end; $5000L (US $20) for the "middle class" and then a tiny number who spend the equivalent of hundreds of US dollars. So what can you do? You can watch "what people are buying" on the Marketplace. I have taken hundreds of snapshots and while I don't have the time or inclination to try to make formulas and crunch numbers, it seems clear that the usual amount is $250-500. Not more. Yes, there are those $2000 mesh heads or $3000 landscaping fatpacks that the forums regs claim they regularly buy. Most people spend way under $1000 per item. Go and look.
Breedables
o Are breedables still strong as an economic sector? I think so, but I really don't know. I started rentals just for breedables at a low cost and they filled up because some people have A LOT of horses or cats. But I personally put some of my cats back into inventory or sent them to the Menagerie. I think some people changed to breedables after gatchas died, fearing no new content, even with all the Miepons (where you now exchange time for money, waiting for the one you want to appear) -- but it's not like I see a lot of people with breedables -- they are still mainly in the "flyover sims," the inner parts of sims with no roads which aren't where the cool kids are. I never see pets in Bellisseria -- but that's because the limit is I believe 2 of the cats anyway, and I had my 3rd and 4th returned once because I didn't realize that was a rule. Bellisseria isn't good for the rentals sector or ultimately the breedables sector -- some avid horse riders say they don't have good riding paths. I ride my Dire Wolf and Golden Stag all over the place in Belli, overland and underwater so I don't feel that, but I guess it is a thing. Do they make up for it in vehicles? Maybe not when so many free ones are available.
Art
For me, even before the Lindens banned gatchas, original art works on single copy replaced rare gatchas. I like them more, they are more interesting, and I mainly don't even re-sell them, I put them in rentals. There is a LOT of art gallery activity. Most prices are likely too low for the work involved -- $200-$500. Some savvy artists who work in RL as artists as well put them to $1000-$3000 but that's still of course a bargain. The return of the artist Filthy Fluno, who was so beloved in the earlier days of SL, with a new art show, a long with others who have been away and have revived their interest has meant new life in this sector. But I also see ghost galleries, and people who have dropped out after a return and a resurge of activity. I personally will never buy a bitcoin; I will pay Lindens for art works that I can see in the 3D virtual world.
LindEx
o It has long been possible to cash out at $240 if you wait at least a few days or even a week; now it has $90 or $100 million stacked up at $240 and you may not sell your Lindens in time for tier payments in a few days. I usually try to instantly put Lindens to sale at the very best realistic price so that I can at least save a little bit, given that the cashout fee is now higher. But then I have to undo the orders. I suppose a lot of merchants are cashing out their "Black Friday" sales. Or maybe people want to buy in RL and need the cash in a hurry. The Lindens artificially control the LindEx of course, and they may or may not adjust this in time. There is this pervasive forums' belief that it is "always stable" but anyone who spends any time on it realizes that is not at all the case. I saw it drop in value after the gatcha ban and stay low; it climbed up again likely because -- again -- it is artificially controlled to "appear stable".
There are other areas one could discuss -- from cars and weapons to live music -- and try to make an assessment but I don't follow those areas so much.
Will Christmas sales pull the economy up? I don't think so. Have people deserted SL for other Metaverses? I don't see that at all, although I do know some people who left for Upland and Sinespace, and Open Sim has enough activity to have an annual conference.
What is to be done? Well, job number one is to fix search, and fix the dreadful "facelift". Search per se has been broken for a year and if the Lindens are serious about fixing the economy, they need to enable people to find things in it. Search is intimately tied to sales, and the economy, obviously. Recently several tenants IM'd me as if they had read my forums posts, which of course they hadn't done (most people don't bother with the forums) and said they had a hella time finding my rentals. Yes, they aren't on Firestorm, where search is much better.
There are all kinds of things merchants do to keep their customers engaged and all of them are seriously burnt out doing all those sales, activities, socializing events, etc. etc. If there are any that still do all this after all these years, hold them close and buy their stuff.
