So the Assange circus is moving to Ecuador now -- this small Latin American country strutting around with pompous hatred of the United States is going to take in the pro-Kremlin anarchist.
"No one is going to terrorize us," President Correa of Ecuador tweeted, believing that "the great powers" are going to now gang up on him. Yeah, he's just going to terrorize his own independent media (read what CPJ has to say at the bottom of this news article about his own lack of press freedom) , and Assange and his buddies are just going to go on terrorizing liberal democratic states and supporting oppressors like the Kremlin (Assange has a gig with the Kremlin's foreign propaganda TV station, RT).
My guess is that the UK is not going to storm the Ecuadorean Embassy in London. David Cameron is not Maggie Thatcher and Assange is not the Falklands. My guess is that while the bobbies are sleeping, some daring Ecuadoreans supported by daring, er, Icelanders or something are going to spirit Assange out of the Embassy in a disguise -- perhaps he'll have to dye his albino-white hair -- and get him through...the Chunnel...or something...to France...or someplace, and then smugly and triumphantly announce that he is in Quito. There, Assange can set up shop as the Mosquito of Quito and continue to jab at the US and receive lefty pilgrims to His Openness.
I think this is what will likely happen because I think the UK doesn't really want to get involved and undermine the Vienna Convention on diplomatic immunity which has international consequences then for undermining the notion as a whole. They will become clutched up among themselves and dither whether they look bad storming a little embassy of a poor Latin American country and "suppressing press freedom" by making Assange go to Sweden to face questioning about his sexcapades.
The US and the UK have an extradition treaty and the UK could have long ago -- years ago, because this has been going on for some time -- extradited Assange to the US. But the US doesn't have a warrant, and may not have a case. It's one thing to try Bradley Manning for a clear-cut case of aiding the enemy in a military court, but it's harder to put together even a foreign espionage case and then try to try it on US soil. It it were easy, it would be done by now. It involves showing that Assange has a direct relationship to Manning's theft of the cables or other thefts that took place of previous Wikileaks. Of course there is a direct relationship between Assange and Manning and that's illustrated not only by the Wired chat logs supplied by the informant Lamo, but proven by other information the military investigators have found on Manning's computer that came out at court hearings. There may be more we haven't heard about.
But whatever it is, the essential truth of their collaboration and connivance may not be so easily convertible to a trial truth, which has to be "beyond a reasonable doubt" and meet other rules of procedure.
I suspect if the US had a case against Assange that was really airtight, it would have been brought by now. Maybe they do, maybe they don't, but remember WikiLeaks took place in November 2010, and it's now August 2012.
And the US not being able to make a case under the "progressive" Obama Administration may not mean that it can't be made at all, or that it may not be made under a possible Romney Administration, or that -- most importantly -- that the destructive acts of Assange somehow aren't wrong, or are somehow justified. They are wrong and they are not justified.
I'm all for making the moral and political condemnation of Assange because far from whistleblowing or uncovering "war crimes," he petulantly and childishly caused needless and pointless and major damage to a liberal democratic government and huge harm to its informants merely because his tiny anarcho-techno-communist views cause him to vehemently hate and despise something larger and more liberal and democratic than himself. He is a cramped and sulking sectarian.
That truly is what it is all about. It is not about "openness" or "freedom" or we'd see more natural openness from Assange and his comrades themselves, and we'd see them ally themselves with more natural allies of freedom than Hezbollah and Putin. It really is just that simple. Liberals trip over their own feet trying to justify WikiLeaks, but there is no liberal justification of WikiLeaks, only a radical, anarchist and destructive one, and that is not a way to run a civil society. The nature of the society that you get with these Bolshevik methods matters, and I'm having none of it. Your press freedom is not harmed if a destructive anarchist is questioned about harming some women, truly. Your press freedom and freedom of expression are not harmed by the prosecution of a soldier for dumping classified cables on the Internet. WikiLeaks, as the First Amendment lawyer Floyd Abrams put it simply, is not press. It is a source. It's actions are not about press freedom; they are about the crime of hacking.
There is no higher cause served by these acts that justifies impunity.
As for the sex case in Sweden, it's a mystery to Americans, who don't have such laws, even in really politically-correct settings, that work in quite this way. Yet I'm a big believer in the wisdom of the feminist Andrea Dworkin. She pointed out, in the date-rape debate, that the punishment for a co-ed who gets drunk and takes a frat boy to her dorm shouldn't be rape, it should only be a hangover.
And the punishment for the Swedish women who had the poor judgement to take Assange to their beds should merely be a smelly bedroom, not sex without a condom. (Bill Keller has reported that Assange smells, aside from everything else.) I see no reason whatsoever that Sweden would be any likely than the UK to send Assange to the US on an extradition reques, given that the US has not produced a warrant. That's why the left has been so perniciously tendentious on this claim -- there's not one whit of difference. The sex charges are not likely to materialize after all this time and the left's severe vilification of the poor women who had the misfortune to get entangled with Assange -- which has shamefully included even charges that they are anti-Cuban CIA operatives! -- will be ugly to watch.
Then what? Back to Australia? Is that what Assange really fears?
Michael Moore and other addled brains are claiming that Assange has exposed American "war crimes". As I explain in this long polemic with Jacob Appelbaum, it's not a war crime, however regrettable and awful these killings and woundings are, and however misguided the US invasion of Iraq is. Notice that neither of the wars that WikiLeaks "exposed" are over, or have been affected by their exposures one whit. The US left Iraq, and the terrorists continue to kill Iraqi civilians in large numbers, just as they killed 100,000 civilians while we were there, because this is about Islamist terrorism supported by Iran and Syria, not about some US "imperialist war." Obama has probably done more to wind down the war in Afghanistan with the targeted assassination of Osama bin Ladn and the plan to withdraw troops than WikiLeaks could even approximate, and that war won't be over, either, as the Taliban and its friends will go on killing civilians in large numbers because it's about terrorism and fundamentalist Islamic warlords, not conventional war. There isn't any more conventional war. WikiLeaks is a 19th century anachronism, like such war. It is like Lenin releasing the European cables on the eve of the Bolshevik revolution, and comes from the same Bolshevik playbook. Yes, Western liberal governments are flawed and even commit crimes. Bolsheviks are no better; they are far worse.
Assange's gyrations since WikiLeaks broke -- as he writes his book with a million-dollar advance -- have only been about "the propaganda of the deed" and the circus of minority politics. Even the lefty UK press, which has been burned by him, is unimpressed.
Perhaps Cameron will surprise us. Perhaps he will have special troops willing to brave the throngs of anarchists and leftists and liberal sympathizers who will ring around the Ecuadorean Embassy in London, piously throwing themselves forward as "witnesses" and "human shields".
But I do think the UK is going to avoid looking bad or taking the risk that gunfire might lead to an unfortunate tragedy and let Assange slip away. Perhaps the UK or the US might retaliate later by cutting aid and trade with Ecuador, which isn't trivial.
Ecuador mainly exports immigrants and lives on their remittances. Its considerable aid from the US is under review right now and it may be impacted adversely by its silly grand-standing over this nefarious net nerd.
But one of its main exports is bananas. Perhaps Assange can start a banana-chip empire and Starbucks can try to get us all to buy overpriced freely-traded organic liberation banana chips.
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